Daily Forex & Bitcoin Technical Analysis By XtreamForex

Discussion in 'Standard Indicators - Tab "Trend"' started by xtreamforex, Mar 27, 2018.

  1. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex New Member


    The unwinding of EUR/JPY shorts triggered a bullish break in the EUR/USD.
    Risk reversals adopt a bullish bias, signaling increased demand for EUR calls.
    Technicals favor a rally to 1.25-1.2550, MAs trend higher.
    The risk-on action in the equities on Monday triggered an unwinding of the EUR/JPY shorts. The resulting demand for the common currency pushed the EUR/USD to 1.2462 – the highest level since Feb. 16.

    Also, the one-month 25 delta risk reversals turned positive yesterday, signaling the implied volatility premium for EUR calls is higher than the implied volatility premium for puts, i.e. the investors are seeking upside protection (EUR calls) against a further rise in the spot.

    Further, the daily chart shows the pair has breached the descending trendline (sloping downwards from the Feb. 16 high and March 8 high) in a convincing manner, signaling a continuation of the rally from the March 1 low of 1.2154. The 5, 10 & 20-day moving averages (MA) are trending north (bullish formation) and pointing higher. On similar lines, the 50-day MA, 100-day MA and 200-day MA are positioned in favor of the bulls.

    Clearly, the spot looks ready to revisit the Feb. 16 high of 1.2556 and may possibly break higher towards 1.26 if the risk assets remain bid and the Eurozone sentiment/business confidence numbers due at 09:00 GMT better estimates.

    EUR/USD Technical Levels

    As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.2450. A break above 1.25 (psychological level) would target 1.25 (psychological number) en route to 1.2556 (2018 high Feb.16). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at 1.2329 (21-day MA) followed by 1.2206 (low Feb.9) and finally 1.2165 (low Jan.18).

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  2. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex New Member



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  3. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex New Member

    GBP/USD Eyes 200-Week MA Hurdle, Focus On UK Trade And Manufacturing Data

    1. Positive setup, looks set to test the 200-week moving average (MA) of 1.4240.
    2. A sustained rally likely if the UK data beats estimates.

    The GBP/USD has scaled close to 200 pips in the last three trading days and could take out the 200-week moving average (MA) hurdle of 1.4240 in a convincing manner if the UK blows past expectations.

    Note, the pair could focus more on the yield differential, given the fading US-China trade war fears. So, the UK data releases and the resulting change in the 10-year US-UK yield spread (currently at 138.8 basis points) could yield a bigger move in GBP/USD.

    The UK trade figure, due at 08:30 GMT, is expected to show the goods trade deficit narrowed slightly to GBP 11.950 billion in February from GBP 12.325 billion seen in January. Meanwhile, the UK February industrial production, also scheduled for release at 08:30 GMT, is seen rising 2.9 percent year-on-year vs 1.6 percent seen in January.

    A drop-in trade deficit and a better-than-expected industrial production/manufacturing production number could push GBP/USD to the recent high of 1.4245 (March 26 high). A convincing break above 1.4245 cannot be ruled out if the US core CPI pints below estimates and the Fed minutes carry a dovish tinge.

    GBP/USD Technical Levels

    Acceptance above the immediate resistance at 1.42 (psychological hurdle) would expose 1.4245 (March 26 high). A daily close above that level would open the doors to a sustained rally above the yearly high of 1.4345 (Jan. 25 high).

    On the other side, failure to defend 1.4145 (Feb. 16 high) could yield a pullback to the ascending 21-day moving average lined up at 1.4071. A close lower would abort the bullish view and shift risk in favor of a drop to 1.40 (major psychological support).

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