Forex Outlook on Major Currency Pairs

Discussion in 'Weekly Forex Analysis' started by Larry, Oct 2, 2017.

  1. Larry

    Larry Administrator

    Weekly outlook from October 2nd - 6th

    EURUSD
    Last week the pair dropped 200 pips, falling below the support line at 1.1750 and then rose to 1.1800. This week Monday, the pair turned lower during Asian session as it was weighed down by the outcome of the disputed referendum on Catalonia independence in Spain. Also, the pair’s slide at the start of this month could be due to growing prospect of another Fed Hike in December.

    Further slide is expected following a bearish confirmation pattern. The pair inability to sustain above 1.1800 handle and further selling pressure could lead to extension of the corrective slide.
    So targets for this week are the support lines at 1.1800, 1.1750 and 1.1700.

    Key Levels: R1- 1.1818, R2- 1.1829, R3- 1.1843. S1- 1.1800, S2- 1.1750, S3- 1.1700


    GBPUSD
    The pair was on a bullish trend during the month of September, but a bearish correction last week makes it more likely to be bearish this week on the short term. This pair remained firm below the 1.3400 handle with little trade action in the market. With the growing conviction of a possible Fed rate hike in December, the dollar looks stronger against its major counterparts. The Pound now looks to the release of manufacturing PMI prints from the US and UK for some direction.

    On the technical side, a clear break through the mentioned hurdle, currently near the 1.3400 handle, should lift the pair back towards an important hurdle near mid-1.3400s marking 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2790-1.3657 up-move.

    Key Levels: R1- 1.3409, R2- 1.3422, R3- 1.3441. S1- 1.3376, S2- 1.3357, S3- 1.3343


    USDCHF
    The pair is currently showing a bullish outlook and is likely to continue its trend this week as EURUSD falls further. USD should gain strongly around the end of October to overcome any indecision. USDCHF remains below the 0.9772 August high and a close above this price would confirm a base market.

    Key Levels: R1- 0.9695, R2- 0.9705, R3- 0.9713. S1- 0.9676, S2- 0.9668, S3- 0.9658



    AUDUSD

    Last week, the AUDUSD fell to 0.7799, pushing the 14 day RSI into a bearish region. This is the lowest the pair has been since the middle of July. The Aussie and dollar were both weighed down by different facts such as the unwinding of save haven longs in Gold and Fed’s Yellen Hawkish comments respectively. Fed’s Yellen comments gave the public a hint that the Fed is no longer depend on data to proceed with the hike.

    If the Pair fails to hold above the downward slopping weekly 200-MA, a bearish trend will begin. However, there is hope for a positive turn out as retails sales are seen rebounding 0.3% m/m in August and trade surplus has widen from 460M to 875M.

    Key Levels: R1- 0.7841, R2- 0.7857, R3- 0.7865. S1- 0.7833, S2- 0.7825, S3- 0.7817


    USDJPY

    The USDJPY made a remarkable gain in September, taking over 450 pips. What happens with the U.S economy will largely determine what happens to the pair this month. According to analysts at BBH, “USDJPY has advanced to levels that may prove difficult to breach. The MACDs and Slow Stochastic are getting stretched. Initial support is seen around JPY112.00 and then JPY111.50.” A positive USD will see the pair continue to appreciate, while a weakness in the USD may trigger a reversal up to 200pips.

    Key levels: R1- 112.60, R2- 112.88, R3- 113.04. S1- 112.49, S2- 112.33, S3- 112.21
     
  2. Larry

    Larry Administrator

    Profiforex Weekly outlook from October 8th - 13th

    EURUSD
    It is a slow week for the EURUSD, as the Japan holiday keeps the majors on a tight angle and the EURUSD kept at the 1.1730 level. There was no high impact news during the weekend that could move the market. Technically, the pair is stuck at 1.1730 below a bearish 20 SMA and technical indicators shows that it is heading south within negative territories. With more downside expected this week, any rallies will offer good opportunities to place a SELL order at a higher price.

    Key Levels: R1- 1.1738, R2- 1.1754, R3- 1.1764. S1- 1.1732, S2- 1.1722, S3- 1.1716.



    USDCHF

    The USDCHF gained about 100 pips last week, but started this week on a calm manner. It is currently losing 0.08%, trading at 0.9790. Technically, the pair seems to be on a strong bullish trend and will maintain that trend this week. It has crossed the resistant level at 0.9800 but closed below it on October 6. The daily RSI indicator remains above the 50 mark, which means the pair is ready for further rise in the short term.

    Key Levels: R1- 0.9785, R2- 0.9792, R3- 0.9797. S1- 0.9774, S2- 0.9768, S3- 0.9762

    USDJPY
    The pair made a remarkable gain and hit a high of 113.25, and easily took out the resistant level at 113.43. However, the move was only for a short term, as the price dropped sharply from the high.
    Despite consolidating throughout last week, the outlook remains bullish. The short-term consolidation will end if price breaks the supply level at 114.00 (strengthening the existing bullish bias) or drops below the demand level at 111.00 (threatening the current bias).

    Key levels: R1- 112.72, R2- 112.88, R3- 113.09. S1- 112.36, S2- 112.15, S3- 111.99.



    GBPUSD
    The pair has dropped 470 pips in the last 2 weeks and now moving toward the accumulation territory at 1.3050. This week Monday, the pair entered into a corrective level and is exhibiting more strength. Its RSI is bullish and pointing higher, although the pair continues to face fundamental pressure on the correction. Bearish movement is less likely to continue this week as accumulation territories at 1.3000 (a strong level), 1.2950, and 1.2900 are tested, but a significant rally may occur before the week runs out.

    Key Levels: R1- 1.3095, R2- 1.3107, R3- 1.3117. S1- 1.3073, S2- 1.3063, S3- 1.3051.
     
  3. Larry

    Larry Administrator

    Weekly Forex Forecast for Major currency pairs.

    October 15th - 20th


    EURUSD


    A correction occurred on Friday after price went up. The EUR/USD pair started the week with a soft tone amid political jitters affecting the common currency. A bearish Trend was formed close to the resistant level at 1.1870, which prevented further gains. The recent failure near 1.1880 was important since a crucial bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1870 on the 4-hours chart acted as a barrier for buyers. The most important support is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1669 low to 1.1879 high at 1.1770.

    Movement above the resistance line at 1.1900 will strengthen the current bias, while movement below the support lines at 1.1750 and 1.1700 will result in a bearish bias. The outlook for the EURUSD is bearish this week.

    Key Levels!: R1- 1.1822, R2- 1.1828, R3- 1.1836. S1- 1.1809, S2- 1.1800, S3- 1.1795


    GBPUSD

    The pair gained more than 210 pips last week and there is still a buy signal with a bullish confirmation pattern this week. So, further gains are expected. The GBPUSD has been oscillating between 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3657-1.3027 recent slide. It would be very wise to wait for a solid break through the said levels before entering any position. The bullish trend is likely to continue unless the accumulation territories at 1.3150 and 1.3100 are breached.

    Key Levels: R1- 1.3309, R2- 1.3330, R3- 1.3348. S1- 1.3271, S2- 1.3253, S3- 1.3232




    USDJPY

    Recent outlook for the pair indicates a bullish trend in the long-term and bearish in the short-term. The USDJPY fell to a low of 111.69 on Friday but closed just above the 200-DMA level of 111.80. Today the bulls tried to take control of the pair during the Asian session, but the mood is still bearish.

    The China’s production price data has a direct bearing on the inflation expectations in the U.S and other countries that partner with China. For example, it is the rebound in the Chinese PPI inflation in July/August 2016 that got the reflation trade going back in July/August 2016. Trumpflation was merely an icing on the cake. So an uptick in the Chinese PPI could lift the USD/JPY pair, however technical studies indicate a minor blip to 111.00 levels is likely in the short-run.

    Key Levels: R1- 111.99, R2- 112.10, R3- 112.22. S1- 111.75, S2- 111.64, S3- 111.52


    USDCHF

    This pair is unpredictably bullish, as no significant movement was seen last week, apart from a 50 pip drop. It is trading within an uptrend channel at 0.9712, last week’s low. There is a short term buying interest, which means the bullish trend will continue for a short while. Key support can be found at 0.8986, January 2015 low. Technical indicators are still pointing to a long term bullish bias. Movement will be determined by what happens to EURUSD; any sign of weakness may maintain the current bullish outlook, otherwise a steady decline can be expected this week.

    Key Levels: R1- 0.9753, R2- 0.9761, R3- 0.9767. S1- 0.9739, S2- 0.9733, S3- 0.9725.



    EURJPY

    Last week, the pair climbed higher to test the supply level at 113.50, but later lost about 120 pips on Thursday. If the price continues on its initial up trend, a bullish bias will be formed soon enough since the demand levels from 131.00 to 132.00 will try to impede any further bearish formations. On the downside, the bias will change if price goes below the demand zone at 131.00.

    Key Levels: R1- 131.50, R2- 131.61, R3- 131.90. S1- 131.20, S2- 131.34, S3- 131.40
     

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