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GBP/USD




As at when Janaury ended, the GBPUSD had begun recovering from loses in face of releases of supportive macroeconomic data as well a heightened demand for the oversold British currency.
The price kept its place within a narrow ascending channel reaching the resistance level of 1.4400 but then it didn't make it in breaking out. The pair went up to 1.4316 holding above 1.4300 figure yet it doesn't present any directional strength. In the 4 hour charts, the price happens to be above a mild 20 SMA (which is bearish) and then the technical indicators hold on top of their midlines with slopes a little bit positive yet we can't say they have significant momentum.



Moving to a weekly chart, GBPUSD prices rebounded down from the middle MA of Bollinger Bands approaching its local low of 1.4085, also possibly heading towards 1.4020, 1.3900 support level.





Support levels: 1.4230, 1.4230, 1.4172, 1.4110, 1.4109, 1.4085, 1.4000
Resistance levels: 1.42821, 1.4310, 1.4360, 1.4371, 1.4385






Trading Tips
Open short positions at the current level setting your targets at 1.4085 taking 1.4460 as your stop loss.






EURUSD




The pair began the week with a tone which we could say was lightly positive moving through the 1.0845 level during the European morning with an upcoming European PMIs. Data released were mixed which indicated a reduction in the rate of growth in the manufacturing sector in January.
On the side of technical analysis, the pair maintains its move along a descending channel as it traded below the Bollinger Bands' middle MA. The price is still below its moving averages with a direction downwards. The Relative Strength Index turned up moving to retest its MA's.

Support levels: 1.0802, 1.0778, 1.0712, 1.0711
Resistance levels: 1.0870, 1.0969, 1.0974, 1.1257



Trading Tips




Open long positions from the level of 1.0880 setting targets at 1.0935 taking 1.0855 as your stop loss.

You could alternatively open short positions from the 1.0755 level setting target at 1.0715 taking 1.0795 as stop loss.





USDCAD

The Canadian sustained its growth improving for a second week consecutively. The USDCAD fell by 170 points . Consequently the pair closed at 1.3974, this marks its lowest level in 4 weeks. Much attention is being paid in the market to Employment Change.
The pair began the week at 1.4143 and hastily rose up to a high of 1.4325. The pair made reversals of direction dropping to a 1.3943 low, thus breaking below support at 1.4019. Further the pair closed last week at 1.3974.

Going into a longer term. The uptrend which could be seen from 0.9056 is yet continuing. It is therefore possible to see a 0.9406 projection (putting it at a 138.2% projection) from 0.9406. A break of support coming from a changing 1.3456 resistance is required to the first indication of a possible medium term topping.






Support levels: 1.3966, 1.3811, 1.3800
Resistance levels: 1.4089, 1.4109, 1.4202, 1.4400, 1.4540




Trading Tips:
Sell the pair below the 1.4109 resistance level taking 1.3800 as target.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs FEBRUARY 8-12

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EURUSD

The EURUSD currency pair broke out during last week to the upside, as a result it cleared the 1.1050 level. Last week tuesday, the EURUSD gained more strength in face of a reduced likelihood of the market to take risks owing to concerns as regards the global economy. The currency pair had dropped on Friday as we saw the noticeable volatility in the market.

By the time last week finished, the EURUSD pair had dropped considerably owing to mixed data released from the US. As we saw, Nonfarm Payrolls had dropped in January to 151,000 from 262,000. This was really worse then expectations as the market sentiment pointed out to a drop to 190,000. Also occurring at that time, other significant data affecting the pair like the Average Hourly Earnings had increased by 0.5% though predictions from experts were placed at 0.3% growth.


For this week, major news to affect the EURUSD is the speech of Fed Chair Yellen. This will majorly affect the dollar as she take turns to deliver her semi-annual testimony to the US Congress ( the Finance Committee of the two chambers of the US Congress precisely). Should she follow a dovish perspective( that is she is in favor of keeping to low interest rates so as to stimulate the American economy and not worried about inflation), the USD has increased chances of recovering.


Last week the pair had a low of 1.1086 and a high of 1.1184. For now, the intraday bias is neutral. A further rise points in near term to 100% projection to 1.1059 from 1.0517 at 1.3151. Furthermore the EURUSD didn't waste time in reverting the advance to 1.1180 area. The EURUSD is yet losing ground, falling to 1.1093 in early US, possibly dropping to session lows close to 1.120. It is thus possible for the EURUSD to fall to 1.1080. When it reaches this point, it is likely the pair may get back to 1.1165 after which it could still fall to 1.1000. From the chart,14-period Relative Strength indicator is pointing to buy action, the Stochastic with the %K and %D period set at 9 and 6 respectively suggests a buy action too. Then the MACD with the periods of the moving averages at 12 and 26 as well has a buy action. Finally the Average Directional Movement Index with a period of 14 also suggests a buy action equally.

Support levels: 1.0469, 1.0642, 1.0898
Resistance levels: 1.1327, 1.1500, 1.1756


(A chart showing all the aforementioned indicators)
With a Neutral trend and volatility at 80, a bullish stance is still possible, and then it is likely to get a retest at 1.1245.

Trading Tip: Open long positions from 1.1251 setting targets at 1.1341, take 1.1209 as your stop loss.




USDCAD

Last week, the USDCAD had opened trading at 1.3973 climbing to a high of 1.4103. The USDCAD then went on to reverse directions dropping consequently to a low of 1.3638 with the 1.3587 level still maintaining support. 1.3915 marked the close of the week as the Canadian dollar added more strength reaching its highs as far back last December. The pair went on correction further up after it has gotten to its 3- months low close to the 1.3675 level.
The Canadian dollar was on an uptrend in most of its pairs but in the aftermath of the release of employment data at the end of last week, it had suffered a setback. In the same line, the USDCAD had dropped in face of weak labour market macroeconomic statistics as well as Services PMI which were released in the US. The results had indicated that the unemployment rate had gone up a bit from 7.1% to 7.2% as well as overall employment dropping by 5,700. There was no significant change in participation rate as the one encouraging spot was the 5.6 increase in full-time employed as well as a 11.6 rise in that of part-timers.
As a result of this data, the Canadian dollar retreated against the USD.Focus this week bothers on data on Building Permits in Canada which is to be released subsequently. There is the general expectations that the indicator will grow to 5.6% which may add strength to the CAD. Also much attention this week is given to the speech in Montreal by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada. The market will greatly respond to the prospects of monetary policy coming from Canada.
The USDCAD finished last week a high of 1.3978 and a low of 1.3841. On the USDCAD, Intraday bias is at the moment neutral. The USDCAD is at this point staying above 1.3456 support (which was formerly resistance) inside the medium term rising channel above 1.3456 resistance. The trend is more likely to continue. It is also possible the high of 1.4689 would be retested.

Support levels: 1.3443, 1.3575, 1.3746
Resistance levels: 1.4049, 1.4181, 1.4352

(A chart showing the support and resistance lines)
Support on yellow, resistance red On the chart above, the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) with period set at 14 gives a buy action. The stochastic with the %K and %D period set at 9,6 respectively is yet a buy action. The MACD with the exponential moving averages set at periods of 12 and 26 respectively pointing a buy action. The Average Directional Movement Index having a period of 14 has a value making it a buy action.

(A chart showing the afforemetioned indicators)
The Canadian dollar has been posting good gains in the last two weeks yet we can't say it is yet invulnerable, trading near the 1.40 line. With volatility at 100%, we expect the trend to be up.


Trading Tip:
Open short positions from 1.3830 setting targets at 1.37100 with stop loss placed at 1.3900.




AUDUSD

Last week, the AUDUSD added more strength as it experienced a drop in expectations concerning the Fed raising interests rates. New York Fed President Williams Dudley has called for more patience pointing out the need for the regulator to consider the complex situation of the global economy as its decides on further monetary policy in the US. The USD faced increased pressure following the release of discouraging data from the Institute for Supply Management on Non-Manufacturing PMI. The indicator had dropped from 55.3 to 53.5. This market it worst dating far back to February 2014. Last week, the rebound from 0.6826 went higher beating what we expected of its strength. Yet this doesn't initiate a trend reversal yet hence it was still yet taken a correction.



Last week, the pair finished with a high of 0.7129 and a low of 0.7052. At the moment, the AUDUSD is neutral, rebounding from 0.6826 which we have addressed as a correction. Should there be a break of 0.7001 minor support, it will reverse bias to the downside thus retesting the low of 0.6826. We are still seeing 0.6826 as correction as above 0.7241 will initiate another rise. We maintain cautiousness on a vehement resistance below 0.7384 to restrict upside to finish the rebound.
On the chart, we see that the Relative Strength Index, the stochastic, the MACD as well as the ADX are all suggesting sell action.

Support levels: 0.6825, 0.6933, 0.7107
Resistance levels: 0.7173, 0.7281, 0.7347

(A chart showing the support and resistance lines)


(A chart showing the affforemntioned Indicators)

From a technical point of view the main trend on the weekly chart is downward, it is likely the main trend will turn up when the 0.7384 swing top is removed. . We could possibly see the beginning of a downtrend if we see a trade through the 0.6826 swing bottom.

Trading Tip: Buy the AUDUSD pair at the 0.6827 level setting target at 0.7565

The attachments show support and resistance levels and then indicator charts for the pairs.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs FEBRUARY 15-19

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EURUSD

On the 11th of February, the local high of the EURUSD pair was tested. Consequently, there was a downward correction in price movement; this was majorly due to macroeconomic statistics which were not too encouraging.

On Thursday last week, the fall in the EURUSD continued as Germany's macroeconomic data as well as that coming from the Eurozone was way off general market expectations. The GDP for Germany suffered for the fourth quarter, getting reduced by 1.3%, this was very contrary to a general market sentiment of growth over 2.2%. Equally in that same fourth quarter, the EU GDP as well dropped a little above 1.45%. As data released last week further revealed that there was a decline in the Industrial Production as it dropped on a monthly basis of -1%; going extensive on an annual basis, we saw that the Industrial Production has fallen to -1.3%.

This was really off-track signs of a EURUSD recovery were very sound as the pair had increased by over 0.98% on Tuesday, even rising to a level we have not seen in over eleven weeks, owing to the sustained decline of the American dollar in face of heavy anticipation surrounding Janet Yellen (Fed Chair) appearance.


Subsequently on Thursday, Janet Yellen gave indications that the expected hike in interest rates could possibly hold off a little further getting delayed. This greatly affected the American dollar as it suffer a decline against most of its principal currencies.

Going into details, Janet Yellen aired her perspective that the economic condition of the United Stated at present will still give the Federal Reserve reason not to stop raising rates.

In relation to Janet Yellen's declarations, the Regulators till maintains its caution as its gets more possible that by the next monetary policy coming up in March, we are not likely to see noticeable alterations in interest rates. Thus for this week, the EURUSD is likely to be majorly affected by Mario Draghi's speech. Also to affect the EURUSD in course of the week is the minutes of meeting from ECB meeting.


Last week the EURUSD opened last week at 1.1237, reaching a high of 1.1262 as well as a low of 1.177. On Monday this week, the American dollar continued to be well higher as compared against its principal contemporaries ( currencies). The EURUSD traded at 1.1179; this marks a fall by a margin of 0.68%. There is a continued lower correction from the peaks which marked the 8th to 12th of February. As earlier said, the speech of Mario Draghi is influencing the EURUSD causing it to move around the area of 1.1200. 1.0539 and 1.1494 defines the principal range. As trades were conducted in the market above a retracement zone centered around 1.1017 to 1.1129. There is yet the possibility of this zone being tested owing to the downside momentum. On the chart the Relative Strength index (RSI) gives a buy signal, this is same with the ADX and the MACD. The stochastic oscillator gives a buy signal as well.


Support levels: 1.0959, 1.1050, 1.1150.
Resistance levels: 1.1341, 1.1432, 1.1532









Forecast:
With volatility placed at 73% for the pair, the EURUSD is on a decline; it is thus even more possible for the to maintain continuity in decline on the downtrend. ing critically into this, consolidation and breakdown which comes under the 1.0970 level would make the premise for the EURUSD to yet drop further to about 1.0940.




GBPUSD

On Wednesday, the GBPUSD pair dropped very noticeably in face of discouraging data published from the United Kingdom, which were even more downbeat than expected. There was a 0.4% reduction in Industrial Production and then Manufacturing Production had also declined by over 1.6%.

Furthermore, there was increased pressure on the pair following what Janet Yellen said in her testimony to the US Congress. Thus as earlier mentioned, the Regulator's position as concerning monetary policy didn't really experience any change as we expect to see speed of possible hikes in US economy to be induced from the situation of the US economy as well as the world financial markets.


On Wednesday,we saw that the British pound was climbing up as against the American dollar owing to improvements we saw in the market sentiment, but them we saw gains for the pair suffering limitations as industrial output from the United Kingdom saw a decline which was significantly its highest in over forty months! Prior to the release of the data,we saw that the GBPUSD was by a percentage of 0.22 on the upside.

Later on Friday last week, the British pound still climbed higher against its American counterpart. Investors didn't yet throw away their caution in face of sustained instability in the global economy prior to the data from the United States to be released on Thursday. In the morning of European trading session on Friday, the pair had touched 1.4528 ( this evidently marred the high of the session as the pair had its consolidation later on at 1.4511 adding on over 0.25% as gain. Consequently, it became very likely for the pair to locate its support around 1.4380 as well as meet a resistance put at 1.4579 where that point indicated a significant high of Wednesday.

On a general basis, the pair was not noticeably altered within the span of 8-12 of last month. The GBPUSD opened the week at 1.4497 recording a weekly high and low of 1.4535 and 1.4457 respectively.
For 15-19th of February, data pertaining to retails sales as well as inflation data will play a major influence in price movement. This indicator has not really been commendably encouraging in its past releases as for December 2015, it ran negatively past a forecasted -0.1% up to a disappointing reading of -1.0%. Generally, we expect a vehement reversal in the report for last month say above 0.75% at least.

For Monday, price direction is neutral as to consolidating on top of a brief low of 159.79. Since the day began today, the pair has been hovering about a level of 1.4500 despite variations in market psychological sentiments.

On the chart we see that the Relative Strength Index gives us a sell signal. The stochastic is oversold and then the MACD is telling us to sell as it is moving above the signal line. The ADX as well is a sell signal.


Support levels: 1.4307, 1.4375, 1.4434
Resistance levels: 1.4561, 1.4629, 1.4688



Forecast:

As said inflation data is going to play a major role in price movement though for the UK and US, numbers have not been too encouraging as to data. The trend could be neutral as if prices could possibly consolidate on top a level probably 1.4670, it could become as sound possibility of the GBPUSD to maintain its growth towards 1.5498.




USDJPY

For the past fourteen days, carry trades for the Japanese yen have not really been something commendable in face of profits suffering continued decline in indigenous banks in Japan. Owing to this, the yen which is experiencing a reduction in strength has made mounted downward pressure on the American dollar which we can't ignore.
Last week Wednesday, the USDJPY was not showing signs of upturning its decline in face of a global economy which momentarily lost direction owing a well reduced possibility of increments in US interest rates. Consequently on Friday last week, the American dollar went up distinctly which clamped down on its continued fall (which earlier on ran into four days) by which we had seen a drop over 3.8% which shot up alarm in investors as they ran to find succor in the safe haven currency (JPY). The USDJPY pair had its trades within an interval of 113.55, a broad range spanning into 111.72. It went further to have its close at 113.22. This was barley 24hrs after the yen had pulled up a high we have not since October 2014 against the dollar at 110.98. We saw for the first fourteen days of February, the American dollar dived down by over 6.5% as we saw that out of 10 sessions, the USD closed higher against the Japanese yen just twice.


The USDJPY thus opened last week at 113.42, reaching a low and high of 1.4457 and 1.4535 respectively. For this week, the news to put our attention will concern inflation data as it will give us a solid clue as to if Janet Yellen and the Fed would still make increments to interest rates any time soon. Also Mario Draghi as earlier mentioned from the European Central Bank would give his testimony in Brussel today in presence of the European Parliament committee on monetary and economic policy.


For Monday this week, the USDJPY gained support as data emerging from Asia with Japan in particular were not too encouraging. For the fourth quarter of last year,we saw GDP for Japan on the decline tightening by over 1.3%. There was no compensation from Industrial Production as it emerged more discouraging than we expected it, sitting at -1.9%.

On lower timeframes, the 100 simple moving average is moving below the the USDJPY. We haven't seem this since twelve days now. Indicators like the RSI is giving a buy signal, just the same as the Stochastic oscillator as we see the same signal prompting to buy from the ADX and MACD as well.


Support levels: 112.74, 113.00, 113.14
Resistance levels: 113.54, 113.80, 113.94


Charts showing support and resistance levels



Forecast:
For last week, the USDJPY dropped to a low I earlier mentioned we have not come across since October 2014. If we bring into consideration mixed data from the United States as well as the increased general risk aversion on the part of investors, it becomes more probable a continuity in the downtrend.

The first four attachments in the post are charts showing support and resistance levels for the EURUSD and GBPUSD respectively.
The fifth which is the last shows the USDJPY showing attached indicators.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs FEBRUARY 22-26

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EURUSD

Last week on thursday, the EURUSD saw a slight drop in an aftermath of minutes which emerged from meetings convened by the ECB and the Fed pointing out to sustained difference in the policy direction of the two banks which rank among the world's elite banks. Consequently that Thursday, the EURUSD held trades within a region marked on the extreme by 1.1150 (peak) and on the least by 1.1071 as it went further to settle at around 1.1103, this is a distance of over 0.14% drop on the session. The euro dropped by a margin of over 1.10 which stood as low of the session. With not much losses, the euro suffered a continued losing streak, seeing a loss for the fifth consecutive time against the dollar, this as well numbers as the seventh loss the euro has suffered counting back the past ten sessions.

As the week went further on Friday, the EURUSD saw some scrap gains which did well to terminate a losing streak which had extended to its fifth day in face of encouraging US inflation data which added more strength to the debate over whether interest rates could should be further altered by the US Fed Reserve. The EURUSD went on that day to trade around 1.1068 extending into 1.11367 which forms a rise over 0.21% on the session. If we remember, tracking back to February 3 where the euro posted a climb exceeding 1.64%, the euro for the past fourteen days have been flat relatively when compared with the American dollar. 1.0538 denoted the support the pair had gained (which also happens to be the low from the 3rd of December 2015) consequently coming across 1.1496 which was acting as a resistance.

The EURUSD finished last with a high of 1.1124 as well as a low of 1.1004 after opening the week at 1.1044. On Monday this week, the euro was dropping further against the USD, this driving the pair to test lows of several weeks somewhere around 1.1020.
We see further that the EURUSD is drawing back almost by a 0.01USD since highs for Monday in a band defined by 1.1120 and 1.1125 as more investors are going for the USD owing to oil prices which made a notable step-up. This Monday, the week began on the losing side, trading at European session around 1.1059 as the USD dragged on its gains (when put against other principal currencies which ascended it to a new two-week high in face of encouraging US inflation data still maintained its continuity in lending support for the USD. EURUSD suffered a significant drop dropping down to a point which is the least it has previously fallen to in about twenty one days amid investors maintain a close a watch on European PMIs release including surfacing signals that the UK could be on its way out of the EU should a very defining referendum convene fourth months from now. Also to majorly affect the EURUSD for the week is data released on the German IFO Business Climate report. It is possible to see further easing from the ECB.NAlso to affect the pair in course of the week is data to be released on Thursday on US Durable Goods orders.


On the chart, we see that technical indicators like the RSI gives a sell signal, the stochastic is oversold while the MACD and the ADX equally give a sell signal.


Support lines: 1.0876, 1.0971, 1.1051
Resistance lines: 1.1226, 1.1321, 1.140


Image: chart showing support and resistance lines


Image: chart showing indicators attached


Forecast:

For now, the EURUSD has maintained its sad slide down from the highs with the USD showing strong recovery of late, it is most likely the downtrend would continue a while longer. Hence the trend is more like bearish.


USDCAD

On thursday last week,the CAD added more strength when brought into comparison with the USD in face of recovering oil prices. The CAD saw considerable improvements, going on to install 1.3845 as the point where it had its week close.

In Canada last week, there was a decline in retail sales as it saw a drop amounting to over 2.1% for December 2015 as last month for November, we had seen an increase in excess of 1.6%. Again last week further data reveled that the Consumer Price Index had recorded a tick up in the size of 0.2% which surpassed general predictions that it could down tick in the size of 0.6%.

Some hours later, the next day Friday we saw a distinct growth in the USD as compared against the CAD; this as a result of the giant spur it took from the encouraging data on US
inflation as the recovery of oil prices began to wind down amid a rather disappointing data on retail sales released Canada. On early US trade on Friday therefore, the pair had reached 1.3847 which was assumed position as the high of the session. As trading went further on Friday, the pair earned its consolidation at 1.3847 which is a move forward, going further by an advancement of over 0.83%.
Last week, the USDCAD opened the week at 1.3779 going on to set a low of 1.3662 and a high of 1.3792. On Monday, the American dollar had backslid against the CAD as recovering oil prices had provided a great lift-up to the CAD (which is famous for been well connected to commodity). As at early US trade, we saw that the pair touched 1.3687. This point distinctively stands out as the we have seen from the USDCAD since Thursday last week. Consequently the USDCAD gathered consolidation at 1.3698. There was heightened possibility of the USDCAD attaining support around 1.3647 and then a likely resistance coming at a region of 1.3898 close to the high we borrowed from Wednesday last week as the CAD as mentioned had been greatly boosted as we saw a climb back above $33/barrel for oil prices.

Very likely to affect the pair this week is the speech from the deputy governor of Bank of Canada (BOC) as he would be speaking on Wednesday in Sudbury. This speech will well affect the USDCAD as investors are maintaining close watch in the market as they hope to spook out any tiny signal for what the BOC plans pertaining to moves concerning interest rates. On the chart we see that the Stochastic is giving a buy signals the relative strength index is giving a sell signal,the MACD too is a sell and the the ADX is as well as a sell.

Support lines: 1.3568, 1.3641, 1.3706
Resistance lines: 1.3844, 1.3917, 1.3982

Image: chart showing support and resistance lines

Image: chart showing indicators attached


Forecast:

The US economy is losing speed but then we had the inflation data and employment data from last week excellently surprising us all. In this view it is possible we could yet see movement in interest rates come next month. And then the Canadian dollar recovery fed from improved oil prices, there is no clear direction of trend but then we still have seen a stop in the moderating momentum signals as we keep an eye out for gains on top of 1.3900.





USDJPY

The pair last week crept up to reach highs marked at 114.87, as the week dragged on, the pair executed a test of the resistance placed at 114.65. Following this,the USDJPY experienced a reversal dropping down consequently to 112.30 ( this point being a low as well). At the tail end, the pair finished on February 19th at 112.52. Overall last week marked a sound week for the yen as the USDJPY dropped heavily down losing about 98 points in course of the fall.

On Thursday last week, the yen suffered a little drop in early Asia, this came before a very hectic day which was suffocated with data releases in the region as investors had to settle down from the agitations which besieged the market ahead of the Fed meeting, yet the meeting did less to signal a high chance of US policy tightening soonest. There was much market sentiment surrounding the release of Japanese trade balance as exports were anticipated to drop by over fifteen percent. Then the next day being Friday we saw that the Japanese yen had added more strength despite slight setbacks in oil prices.


For last week, the USD opened the week at 112.57 going on to set a weekly high of 113.38 and a weekly low of 112.43. The USD still had support on Monday following a very impressive US core inflation data which we saw had climbed up at a speed. On Monday the USDJPY climbed back to its handle placed at 113 ( recording gains amounting to 0.28%) following a rise in Asian trade spanning across forty eight hours. The pair gained support at 112.50. On Monday the Japanese yen came across heavy pressure the speed of Chief of Bank of Japan Kuroda ( as he had emphasized on caution in Japanese monetary polices before the parliament).
The Tokyo Core CPI will affect the pair further this week. We expect a reading not too impressive with an anticipated flat reading placed at 0%. This week as well week price movement for the USDJPY will be greatly connected to data from the Eurozone PMIs as investors will have their eyes set on data on durable goods which is a strong indicator measuring the strength of the American manufacturing sector.
The charts RSI is neutral, same with the MACD while the stochastic gives a sell signal, with the ADX giving a buy signal.
Support lines: 111.82, 111.99, 112.12
Resistance levels: 112.42, 112.59, 112.72




Image: chart showing indicators attached


It is very possible for a solid consolidating arrangement. We don't expect the downtrend to end soonest, but then a correction to a level around 120.69 is likely too.


The attachments show supports and resistance chart as well as indicators attached charts for the EURUSD and USDCAD. Then the last shows the indicators attached chart for the USDJPY.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs FEBRUARY 29 - MARCH 4

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX

EURUSD
Last week Wednesday, we saw that the American dollar had cleared off gains it had earlier recorded against the other principal currencies. This consequently caused it to pull off a high running into a span of three weeks, following data releases in the market which revealed that U.S new home sales had suffered a drop, with the drop even getting far worse than we had earlier expected.

That same Wednesday, we went on to see that the American dollar had located reasonable support following the statement of the President of the Federal Reserve Jeffrey Lacker as the president voiced his opinion that the possibility of a rate hike was well encouraged by the latest news coming out advising the US Central Bank to pay more critical attention to improving on the growth of the economy by means of controlling inflation.
On Friday, the EURUSD dropped noticeably as we saw it has suffered a slide down falling to the least level which we had not earlier seen for about three weeks, this happened in face of a rise in the core inflation in the US; a rise denoted in its largest annual percentage for over thirty six months now. On that Friday, the EURUSD had its trade in a region marked by 1.1069 and 1.0912 on the least. This position of trading describes a down on the session in the percentage magnitude of a little above 0.77% running into about 0.0085.
For four of the most recent five sessions, we saw that the euro had finished at a lower position than the American dollar. If we track back to when the euro had climbed to a three month high sometime at the beginning of February, we see that today the euro has dived down a distance of over 3.1% against the USD.
On the morning of Friday last week, we as saw that the monthly report on consumer spending and personal income had climbed up in a quantity over 0.4% for last month .

The EURUSD opened last week at 1.0914, going on to reach a weekly high of 1.0962 as well as a weekly low of 1.0862.


This week Monday, the American dollar had climbed to a new high for twenty-one days even in face of the US housing sector data ( which really didn't meet our expectations) as very powerful support from the US economic up-arise we saw from Friday last week still continued to support the EURUSD on Monday. On Monday this week, the USD began the day very positively having finished last week very impressively as such made some slight corrections in course of the Asian trading session and then stepping back in its track for a further rise when London session began.
From a rather technical view we see from the daily swing chart that the EURUSD major trend is on the downside. We got to see a noticeable reversal late last week when we saw the pair making a cross through 1.0959 operating then as a swing bottom. 1.1067 will now mark the peak of a new swing as we see trading activities through this top, it becomes very likely that the maintained would soonest turn up. Likely to significantly contribute to movement of the EURUSD this week are the manufacturing PMIs to be released this Tuesday across Europe.
On the weekly chart,we see that the relative strength index gives a sell signal, same sell signal emanates from the stochastic with the MACD also pointing out a sell signal while the ADX happens to be neutral.
Support levels: 1.0638 1.0775 1.0851 ,
Resistance levels1.1064 1.1201 1.1277

EURUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/ZFIsb4U.jpg
EURUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/PsWxpka.jpg

FORECAST
The circumstance of an inflation in Europe is not getting any better as this would surely compel the ECB to make a quick move and any move then would press down the euro further. This makes a sustained downtrend more likely.


GBPUSD

Last week Wednesday, we saw the GBPUSD carrying out trades in a region defined by extremes of 1.4017 ( on the highest) and then 1.3879 (on the lowest). Consequently that Wednesday,the GBPUSD went on to settle down at a point down by over 0.70% on the session. If we remember,ever since that meeting between the European Commission leaders and David Cameron (holding the position of UK prime minister): a meeting that ascended Britain to a more honorable class in the EU; the British pound had dropped down drastically against the dollar; a drop in the weight of over 2.59%. That very last week Wednesday, we saw the pair didn't turn back from its decline owing to the British pound lacking adequate strength. The pound further faced very significant pressure following the declaration by some top British politicians promising to add support to the push for UK to exit the EU.
The next day,we saw the GBP having its consolidation around 1.3910 ( which is also a support level) following a distinct fall of the GBP even an impressive growth in the Retail Sales lacked in providing the needed support for the GBP as attention was shifted to the UK GDP to be released. By Friday last week, we had seen that the USD had come well above the GBP as the pair had dropped down to 1.3891; a decline which even exceeds 0.50% as a possible exit of Britain from the EU bloc continued to worry investors in the market.

Such that by the end of last week, the pair had finished with a weekly high of 1.3946 as well as a weekly low of 1.3836 after it had opened the week at 1.3859.
On Monday this week, the pound was yet still reeling under pressure, even adding to its woes by dropping further against the USD by some more points thus pushing it down to a new low we have not seen in over twelve months now at 1.3840. We saw the GBPUSD last week dropping heavily as there is increased worry in the market over whether the UK would still stay in the EU after the deciding referendum set for June 23 with the USD on Monday adding more strength following support from impressing US GDP data last year's fourth quarter. For the next few days of this week, major focus would be addressed to data on Markit PMI"s concerning Construction, Services and Manufacturing in the UK and then possibly to affect the GBPUSD further is Wednesday's speech by the deputy governor of the BOE (bank of England) as he addresses BOE's next monetary policy moves.
On the chart, we see that indicators like the relative strength index (RSI) giving a neutral signal while the MACD is giving a sell signal quite contrary to a buy from the stochastics and then the ADX pointing to buy,

Support levels:1.3261 1.3557 1.3713
Resistance levels: 1.4165 1.4461 1.4617
GBPUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/jyJJWxn.jpg
GBPUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/YJEpg3o.jpg


Forecast
Fears pertaining to whether the UK could exit the EU has majorly been hitting hard on the pair, with the dollar impressing after receiving support from positive data. As such it is more likely the trend wouldn't change soonest as we expect the GBP to further drop points against the dollar should we see a correction in the area of 1.42.

USDJPY

Last week Tuesday saw the Japanese yen adding more strength against the American dollar. Fundamental economic news centered around the gross domestic product of Japan revealed a setback in the Japanese economy. In spite of such occurrences, the yen still managed to borrow support from an encouraging Japanese Trade Balance. Also at that very interval, we saw impressive data on initial jobless claims released in the US were the indicator revealed a sharp drop in initial jobless claims in the US to 262,000.

Consequently on Friday last week, we saw the yen losing strength in Asia as there was a disappointing drop in the data released on consumer prices with a discouraging core measure that was flat; totally going against general market sentiment of the core measure dropping a little by say 0.2%. By Friday the yen recorded some gains as investors in the market kept very close watch for the statement emanating from the meeting in Shanghai where there was a G20 meeting. Following the data release, the USDJPY dropped a distance down by over 0.14%. But by Friday, the USD had dropped a little against the JPY with investors attaching more concerns on the oil market thus USDJPY dived down to 112.75 on Friday, a drop to the extent of over 0.02%

So that by the time last week finished,the USDJPY had added on over 148 points over the seven days such that it finished very close to the line put at 114. By Monday, the Japanese yen attempted a little recovery at the start of the US session cutting down on losses drawing support from a more encouraging risk sentiment. After dropping to 112.75 which takes the position of the daily low, the USDJPY enjoyed a small recovery as it consequently got a positive climb up. The pair went on to trade on Monday at a 113.10 showing there is still some recovery expected for the day. The USDJPY would likely be affected this well by the Chicago PMI to be released from the US with a further data on home sales in sight. On the chart,mew see the RSI giving a sell signal, the stochastic also giving a sell signal, same could be said for the ADX and the MACD.

USDJPY

Support levels:112.74 112.80 112.86
Resistance levels 112.98 113.04 113.10
USDJPY support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/rU6FeF3.jpg
USDJPY indicators: http://i.imgur.com/BNPtTlo.jpg

Forecast
There is big uncertainty as to what the USDJPY holds but then if you consider the zero inflation of Japan and the yen gathering strength as well as oil improving with more encouraging risk sentiment, it is possible we may have a low placed at somewhere around 110.97 but then for now the trend is neutral.



Attachments in order of EURUSD support and resistance charts, EURUSD indicator chart, GBPUSD support and resistance charts, GBPUSD indicator chart,then the last is for USDJPY Indicator chart.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs MARCH 7- 11
This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX

EURUSD
Last week Wednesday, the EURUSD got to a point which is a 21-day low. This came following sound US employment data suggesting likely growth in the US labour market. Further more, the EURUSD traded around 1.0873, after which the EURUSD settled at about 1.0868. This is a fall of over 0.0016 ( for the session, this fall is about 0.058%). ing back into the last fourteen sessions, the EUR has closed on the lower side of the USD nine times. The euro suffered a great drop since the 11th of last month when we saw the EUR post a 12-week high ; this drop is about 3.9%.

Earlier on Tuesday, the EURUSD had dropped down a bit, as the pair suffered a drop coming down to a 4-week low. This happened as there was a release of data on eurozone manufacturing which grew at a very slow rate. This slow rate is notably the slowest we have seen in the last twelve months. This greatly increased the need for the European Central Bank to adopt relevant monetary polices. We greatly expect to see these policies from their next meeting due to hold this week.

Moving on, on Thursday last week, we saw the pair climb up quickly over 1.08. This rise happened as investors didn't react much to economic data coming from the US.

Then on Friday, the American dollar dropped down a little against a host of the principal currencies. We were not really expecting this as we had earlier on seen reports show that jobs created in the US had beat expectations. But as it turned out to be a very brief indication a recovery of the US economy, Thus the EURUSD enjoyed gains which went up to 1.003, this is a climb of about 0.428%. ing back, we have seen that the EURUSD hadn't moved past 1.10 this month. The only exception to this was the rise we saw from the EURUSD last week Friday as traders in the market saw weren't really convinced of a possible interest rate hike this March.
Thus by morning trade in the US session, we saw the EURUSD moving past 1.0905 climbing up to 1.1012; this is a rise in the EURUSD which is more than 0.50%.
The EURUSD opened last week at 1.0990 after which it posted. a weekly high of 1.1024 and then a weekly low of 1.0940. On Monday, we saw the American dollar trying to make gains against other principal currencies in the market. The American dollar got good support from employment data we saw from last week Friday. This data showed that there would possibly be no rate hike soonest. On the other hand, we saw the euro today getting weaker following data form Germany. This data showed that German factory orders had dropped for February. Consequently, the euro fell against the dollar with the pair dropping down to 1.0957, this is decline of over 0.43%. In that very December meeting, the ECB adopted a stimulus package which was way smaller than expected.
From the chart, it could be seen that the Relative Strength Index is neutral same as the stochastic oscillators while the MACD and ADX give signal to buy.

Support levels: 1.0655, 1.0740, 1.0872
Resistance levels: 1.1089, 1.1174, 1.1306
EURUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/2c8W2eO.jpg

EURUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/M0wRMSQ.jpg

ing at it from this way, we believe that the Mario Draghi of the ECB will try to do more than they did when the ECB met last December; and this time announce very important monetary policies aimed at keeping the euro down against the dollar. This way we see that for increased inflation ( knowing that it is the ECB's target to increase exports), a weaker exchange rate must be ensured. And from the US, we don't really see new hikes in interest rates from the Fed soonest. So in this light, it is more likely the trend will be down.


GBPUSD
On Tuesday last week, The British Pound had not stopped its very weak rise in course of the trading session in Asia. The pair had climbed on top of 1.3977 following this with a slight drop as report of data on UK Markit Manufacturing PMI was to be released. The data which was coming from China had revealed that there was a further drop in the Chinese economy while the general economy of Europe was getting better as oil prices were getting steady . This resulted in investors looking out for possible moves from the ECB when they meet next.

By Thursday, we had seen the Sterling go up against the American dollar; moving up above 1.4192. This was after the pair had lost over forty-seven pips during an Asian trading session. Following this, the pair added on more strength.

At the end of the week on Friday, we saw that much has happened to the GBPUSD as it had climbed up by over 297 points. This climb occurring in face of a falling dollar which came under pressure many times owing to US data which didn't meet expectations.

Last week, the GBPUSD opened the week at 1.4211, recording a weekly low of 1.4135 and a weekly high of 1.4284. On Monday, GBPUSD went on climbing to a high of two weeks after it experienced increased momentum. It appeared the USD was not on a recovery from its its weakness in course of the US session. The British pound remarkably turned around from its losses as it added over 135 pips in course of the intraday trading. This turn around brought the pair to 1.4282 which it posted as a peak. Consequently, the pair traded around 1.4266. This point is a climb of over 0.29% for the day. Thus, this caused the GBPUSD to experience a rise (this is the 6th straight trading day the GBPUSD has posted a rise).The pair went on to trade in the region of 1.4166.

Very likely to affect the GBPUSD this week is data on manufacturing production, if the data comes out contrary to what we expect, we are sure it is going to hit the GBPUSD straight away and greatly affect market direction of the pair. Although the last releases on this data have been 3 drops coming after each other straight yet general investor sentiment favours an improved January report. This could come at over 0.19%.
On the chart we see that the relative strength index is giving a buy signal, same as the stochastic oscillator, while the ADX and the MACD give a buy signal.

Support levels: 1.3548, 1.3691, 1.3960
Resistance levels:1.4372, 1.4515, 1.4784

GBPUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/6oswezM.jpg
GBPUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/2XXPsja.jpg
Forecast:


It is not really very likely that the Federal Reserve could pursue an interest rate hike this March. With the recent job reports from the US, it is likely that the USD could yet move up further. The conclusion is the trend for the GBPUSD may likely be bearish.




USDJPY

On Tuesday, it was generally expected that the USDJPY would further drop. The pair had already been unsuccessful in holding on to its gains on top of13.00. The next day on Wednesday, the pair struggled, only making a break when it touched fresh highs which we have not seen from the USDJPY since the 17th last month. Earlier Wednesday, the USD looked like it gathering strength in face of data from PMIs (manufacturing) released on Tuesday which were encouraging.

Going into the figures,we saw that the USDJPY for Wednesday had initiated a correction (which took an upward direction) as the USDJPY was unsuccessful at its move to break down 111.00. This 111.00 which was a key level. The failure of the USDJPY to break 111.00 happened twice. The pair gained reasonable support as the USD got stronger on support from data in the United States. And then we saw the Japanese yen coming under pressure for a longer period of time in face of discouraging macroeconomic data from Japan which fell below expectations.

On Thursday, the pair moved past 114.26. 114.26 here was the day's high.Despite this, investors generally weren't convinced by the prospects of the USDJPY going up further as spikes were taken as a pointer to sell. Thus by the end of the week on Friday, we could say the pair had shown impressive volatility yet it didn't really end the week with very big changes. The USDJPY had its opening for the week,the USDJPY went on to turn around ,rising up to highs put at around 113.70 with no deviation in the resistance point which comes at 114.65 for the week.

Last week, the USDJPY opened the week at 113.95 which happened to be its weekly high and then posting a weekly low of 113.23.Owing to the fact that the Bank of Japan didn't make any significant move, we saw on Monday that the yen had put on more strength. This in addition to the lack of action from the Bank of Japan ( as well as stocks which are on a slide), made the yen move up against other principal currencies in the market. Data coming Japan revealed that the governor of the Bank of Japan looking very hopeful for the Japanese economy. The Bank of Japan seems to be comfortable with the negative interest policy. The pair thus suffered a decline, dropping to around 113.38 and then trying to start a recovery. Thus we saw the pair had declined by over 0.12% leaving it down at 113.62.
Likely to affect it this week is data to be released on yen gross domestic product of Japan, there is a more solid prospects that it could drop; and if this eventually happens, it will be more likely for the Japanese yen to experience fresh pressure.
On the chart,we see that the Relative strength index gives a sell signal which is the same signal from the stochastic ADX and the MACD.

Support levels: 110.02, 110.09, 112.42
Resistance levels: 114.82, 115.89, 117.22

USDJPY support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/F7qKkgs.jpg
USDJPY indicators: http://i.imgur.com/AqfAy1q.jpg

Forecast:
The trend is more likely to be bullish given that the data from the US have been impressive of late with the Bank of Japan coming under strong pull to bring on more easing measures.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs MARCH 14- 18

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX

EURUSD
Data released Monday on Industrial Production revealed that for the first month of the year, the indicator had increased by about 2.0% which is very far from the -1.0% we saw for December last year. This has supported the euro keeping in from falling much. Since the day began, we see that the pair has not traded far from the region of 1.1110 region. The daily chart points sustained decline in the EURUSD as even on the H1 chart, we see the pair trading below a simple moving average which had its period put at 20. Earlier on Monday, there was no clear direction of the trend as the pair look to have consolidation at around 1.1100. ing critically at the trend so far,we can say it is more bearish. As the simple moving average earlier mentioned looks to move higher; even looking to get support at the region of 1.1088.

The dollar in early trade sessions didn't suffer significant drop as investors have not stopped focusing on the FED meeting to hold this week. The pair in course of trading had dropped to 1.1096, this about a drop of 0.44%.The euro seem to be affected following a cut in interest rates by the ECB to fresh levels. As we saw the European Central Bank had reduced its benchmark rate to zero; previously it was at 0.05%.The stochastic is showing an overbought condition, with the MACD still pointing out to further possible drop in the pair.


ing to the future of the pair, the FED meeting on Wednesday is very crucial. Though we don't really expect interest rates to be raised but then given the latest indications of a weakening global economy,it is possible we may see interest decisions from the FED this Wednesday. It is even more likely as US jobs situation has not stopped strengthening.

Support levels:1.1052, 1.1068, 1.1076
Resistance levels: 1.1100, 1.1116, 1.1124

EURUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/vgZL58E.jpg
EURUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/WBudMy7.jpg

General trading on the EURUSD today has been more of selling, as the pair struggled to maintain stay around the 1.1100. But then with the sustained trading activity around this region, if we see a break, then it is more likely it would go back to somewhere around 1.1079. This is more likely as traders ignored the data released today on EMU’s Industrial Production. But for the immediate picture of the EURUSD, the trend looks to be a downtrend for some time.

GBPUSD


The pair could not hold on to its move to recover from a decline today as it traded in the region of 1.4378. This was after oil price sell-off came up again. This region is close to its daily low. The pair consequently traded at 1.4353 which is a drop more than -0.18%. This was following its trade at 1.4336 where is retested lows for the session of Early Europe. As European stocks rose higher, we saw the GBPUSD locating support close to 1.4337. The GBPUSD went down to 1.4316 which is a drop of over 0.46%.

During the trading day today we saw that direction of trade look to point to a possible uptrend. This was seen as the pair touched 1.3835 which was a notable low from last month when the market's reaction to a possible exit of the UK from the EU was exaggerated. From the H4 chart, we see that piece is doing well on top of the exponential moving average with period at 200 at the region of 1.4258. Then the simple moving average with period at 20 going towards 1.4289.

For now, the pair has not strengthened as it is still weak from pressure of the situation of oil prices earlier mentioned. In the situation of oil prices, the Brent lost by over 1.433 while the US oil went down too by over -0.187%. This greatly weakened the GBPUSD. The pair had shown retracement from 1.4435 which was a high it had set some three days ago. Then it went on to consolidate its most recent gains.


Support level: 1.4281, 1.4293, 1.4301
Resistance levels: 1.4321, 1.4333, 1.4341

GBPUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/CAuq9pK.jpg
GBPUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/Va1socs.jpg

From the technical angle, we don't see this downside really lasting long. Investors are on the search for dips now, as they see this as nice points to open a position in the pair. Most technical indicators however shows that the bearish trend could be brief; most particularly as price has not yet come above a simple moving average with the period set at 20. On our chart, the RSI is giving a sell signal while the stochastic is showing a region of been oversold and then the MACD giving a sell signal which is the same from the ADX.

ing into the future of the pair, for us to see prices going up to the region of 1.4490, at least pair must first be able to consolidate above 1.4409.

Also another possible happening for the pair is this. For a day moving average whose period is set at 55, if the pair could overcome this, then it may likely get on top of 1.4663. This region marks its high for last month. Similarly, if we happen to see a drop from 1.7189, it is more likely a downtrend ( on the long term) is starting again.

For now, many investors don't favour the dollar as few are willing to take the risk to buy it. The pair this traded around 1.4369 today. There is sure to be more movement in this pair on wednesday when the United Kingdom will publish its most recent data on employment. We are expecting the unemployment figures to drop. If this happens, surely the GBPUSD would climb up.


USDJPY
On Monday, we see the pair found it difficult to hold on to gains it posted above 113.98 as it was trading within a tight range. In course of the Asian session today, we saw the Japanese yen dropping in strength while the Nikkei rose up.

There is the chance that the Bank of Japan will likely postpone its move to reduce interest rates on Tuesday. Even up to till now, it is clear the USDJPY is still feeling the effect of the shocking move of the Bank of Japan to start using negative interest rates. For now, yet many investors feel that the Bank of Japan will try to improve their economy in the months to come by expanding their monetary stimulus. This is even more likely when we consider that the move the bank of Japan made in January didn't stop the rise in the Japanese yen. It is after Tuesday policy statement from the Bank of Japan that will give traders any indication that the bank could be dropping its negative interests any time soon.

From the technical side, price action for the pair is still in the region of 113.48. This is on top of fibonacci retracement level which comes at 24%. This went on to form a support. The trend is more neutral though there is the chance that it could slide further down as most technical indicators on the H4 chart not showing a clear direction of the trend.In face of this, before we can see a very clear trend, it is most likely price would rise above 114.58 which seems to happen considering the Meeting of the Federal Reserve which will come on Wednesday.

Support levels: 113.50, 113.55, 113.67
Resistance levels: 113.84, 113.89, 114.01

USDJPY support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/j42Nlbt.jpg
USDJPY indicators: http://i.imgur.com/ZsWBYQn.jpg

The Japanese yen has been looking to touch 114.04. If it does, then it could go dropping down to 111.87 and then go up back to 113.24.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs MARCH 21-25
This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


EURUSD
The USD didn't change much against the dollar when trading began this week. There was no release of big US macroeconomic data so there was no much price movement on the EURUSD. The USD had come back from the drop it suffered from the latest policy move from Federal Reserve,the Fed announced that it is very possible for us to see hike in interest rates only two times for 2016 as the American economy stand the risk of an unpredictable global economy. Many investors in the market before this announcement were expecting the Fed to increase interest rates at least four times for 2016.

There was increased pressure on the EUR as the Peter Praet (chief economist of the ECB) revealed that that the interest rates for the Eurozone could possibly still drop further. Consequently the dollar was steady against majority of its big rivals in a less busy Monday market. Thus the pair was trading around the region of 1.1274 steadily.

Some hours later, The dollar held steady against the other major currencies in subdued trade on Monday, off Friday’s five-month trough as the American dollar continued to recover from the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy statement.EUR/USD was steady at 1.1276. This was some distance above the low we got from the London session. ing from the technical angle, it looks the pair may suffer further losses as we see the simple moving average with a period of 20 is yet looking to rise. The momentum indicator dropped; going under the level marked at 100.

Consequently, data released on US home sales revealed to investors that the indicator has suffered a drop falling below general expectation of traders for February. The data revealed there was an over 6.9% decline in February for home resales in the US. This drop brings it down from 5.47 million to less than 5.09 million units for last month. Many of us was expecting it to drop at most to somewhere around 5.33 million units. This data is really powerful in the market as a lot of traders use it measure the general strength of the US economy. As the disappointment of the drop in the data hit the EURUSD, as it went on to hold trades around 1.1264 this was a significant movement from around 1.1256 it was trading before the data on US home sales was released.

Now looking into the future of what is to come this week for the EURUSD. We have seen that both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are not really interested in raising interest rates any time soon. This means much may not really happen to EURUSD for this week as we may be see increased stability in price movement for the pair. Yet it is possible for prices to touch the level at 1.1200 should the US data to be released on initial jobless claims this week come out higher than our expectations. For now, the trend is struggling to remain bearish.

Support levels: 1.0917, 1.1015, 1.1141
Resistance levels: 1.1365, 1.14633, 1.1589

EURUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/eoxtIdM.jpg
EURUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/wyOb7ky.jpg

USDJPY

When the week began, the markets in Japan were still on closure as Japan was observing a national holiday. The American dollar didn't drop against the Japanese currency yet in the US session. The pair touched a daily high at 111.92 as it looks towards getting above 111.99. For sometime now of late, we have not seen the daily highly of 111.92.

ing back on Friday,we saw that the finance Minister for Japan, Taro Aso triggered rumors that the BOJ (Bank of Japan) would be interfering directly in the market. The minister said he would be strictly monitoring moves from the forex market as the USD moved up against the yen.

We saw the pair dropping to fresh lows last week, lows fresh as we haven't seen them for over thirteen months now. The yen looked set to suffer more decline against the USD prior to be monetary policy to be released from the Federal Reserve. But as it turned out, the FED decided against raising its interest rates as its move towards postponing interest hikes was still upheld. And with the Japanese regulator not changing monetary policy too just like the FED, the Japanese yen gained more support.

The USDJPY went to 111.72, a drop from 111.84 as data on existing US home sales had revealed that the indicator had dropped by over 7.0% as the data posted US home resales of less than 5.09 million. This was a massive drop from 5.47 million we saw for last month.

ing into the future, this Monday as we noted, trades on the pair were held in a flat range as Japan was observing a national holiday. The pair didn't trade much outside 111.40. For this week, the major event is core CPI from Tokyo. For the last two releases we have seem consecutive declines which is about 0.98%. Yet for now, the trend is majorly bearish.

Support levels: 107.04, 108.92, 110.23
Resistance levels: 113.42, 115.30, 116.61

USDJPY support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/4pDzuqA.jpg
USDJPY indicators: http://i.imgur.com/heIuWVl.jpg


GBPUSD

This month,the British pound has been doing reasonably well though So far data coming from the US have been more positive than those from the United Kingdom. Even though yesterday we didn't see a move from the Federal Reserve, it is becoming more obvious that the Fed is not planning to really raise interest rates this month or anytime soonest either. Even looking at the US economy, there is not much need to spur economic activity with a hike in the interest rates soonest.

Thus this week, we saw the GBPUSD trading quite lower, though it didn't waste much time in bouncing back going on top 1.4373. The pound came under more pressure as there was no major data was released from the United Kingdom though it is more likely that this week will have increased price movement as we look to the data to be released on inflation today and then the data on retail sales. The UK consumer price index (CPI) is the major data to affect the pair this week. For January, the UK CPI came out as we expected, though the inflation data came down against our expectations as it dropped to 1.2% as we were expecting something around 1.3%.

The sterling thus suffered losses with the pair dropping down going below 1.4440 such that it finished Monday at 1.4301 as many investors were already looking toward the CPI the next day. We are expecting the CPI to come out with a rise to 0.4%, up from 0.3%. If this happens and CPI is impressive enough to beat our expectation, then it is very likely the GBP would face a lift but then for a continued gain on the pound, it is most likely that will happen if it has crossed 1.4500.


Also it is likely the CPI wouldn't not entirely be responsible for movement in the GBP/USD this week. By Thursday, we expect the market to have recovered reasonably from the effect of CPI indicator. Then investor focus would turn to the data to be released on the Retail Sales. For January, we saw a rebound in retail sales which exceeded a gain of 2.2% when a lot of investors were looking at somewhere around 0.78%. Should the data come out disappointing, it is most likely going to bring up a bearish trend on the GBPUSD.

Support levels: 1.4190, 1.4263, 1.4368
Resistance levels: 1.4546, 1.4619, 1.4724

GBPUSD support and resistance:http://i.imgur.com/EDv5Kdo.jpg
GBPUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/dRm5XYW.jpg

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs MARCH 28- APRIL 1

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX

EURUSD

The American dollar climbed up early on Monday in a market where there was less trading activity owing to holiday. Lot of major Banks in Europe were on the Easter Monday holiday as investors generally took their focus to the US data to be released later in the day as well as statements from the Fed officials on Tuesday- whether we could be seeing any signs of changes in interest rates.

Consequently the dollar added strength following data which showed that U.S fourth quarter growth on Friday was positive as this supported a possible hike in interest rates in the months to come. Also data revealed that the gross domestic product from the US commerce department was also impressive for the fourth quarter as it was revised to 1.4% which is a good leap from 1% estimated from February. Economists generally in the market had expectations that the reading would remain unchanged. The pair went to to trade around 1.1169, a jump from around 1.1160 after it looked to fall before US data came out.
.
Data today also showed that the consumer spending for US climbed up too for February. This was comforting as a lot of investors in the market have been expecting it to rise and then PCE U.S. consumer spending rose in line with market expectations in February, while core Personal Consumption Expenditure prices (PCE) prices disappointed as they dropped below expectations. As such we saw much selling action for the pair as the EURUSD threatened to slip down. On the one hour chart, we saw the pair moving up to the region of 1.1174.
Report coming from the commerce department in the United States revealed that personal spending didn't fall below what the market was expecting as it went up a bit by 0.1% after it was revised from the last reading of 0.5%. The EURUSD went on to trade at the region about 1.1171 after it had traded at about 1.1168 before the data was released.

Support levels: 1.1136, 1.1146, 1.1153
Resistance levels: 1.1174, 1.1181, 1.1192

EURUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/5uuHbMyl.jpg
EURUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/geusOkLl.jpg

Now looking into the future, very important to how the EURUSD would fare this week is the speech of Janet Yellen, the Fed Chair. This statement is coming on Tuesday as we look to see if she will give us any new hints on whether interest rates would be raised anytime soon or possibly next month. It is very likely now that interest rates will rise as US data has been fairly impressive of late with many Fed officials supporting more than one interest rate hike this year. If you combine this with the situation in Europe, where there was increased fear about the future of the United Kingdom in the EU after last week terrorist bombing of Brussels, it is very possible the trend would be bearish.


GBPUSD

This Monday, investors were still worried over whether the United Kingdom would be pulling out of the EU. In recent sessions, we saw the USD adding more strength after data released showed an impressive fourth quarter growth from the United States. This coupled with the fact that a lot of FED officials are pushing for increase in interest rates supported the American dollar. Yet the sterling went on to extend gains as the pair moved up to 1.4221 which is almost a jump of over 0.67%.

This was after it had traded at lows in Asian trade at about 1.4119. With the pair moving on to 1.4172 struggling to break above the region of 1.4179. The British pound was pushing to come up again on as a good part of the market was on holiday after we saw last week much selling action on the pair. The selling action we saw last week was majorly about a possibly close FED interest hike for April and June as well as if the UK would be staying the EU for much longer.

Consequently, it looked the GBPUSD would be going higher as the USD suffered a setback in its latest climb against the major currencies. The USD had moved up to one-week high before this as comments from Fed officials all point to a very close hike in interest rates. On a holiday Monday like we had today, investors shifted their attention to the data on personal consumption expenditure (PCE) to be released from the US which turned out to be below what we were generally expecting. The GBP went on to drop down from 1.4180 which marked the region of its daily high going back down to around 1.4158 as we saw reduced volatility in the market owing to equally reduced trading activity.

Support levels: 1.4081, 1.4100, 1.4112
Resistance levels: 1.4150, 1.4162, 1.4181

GBPUSD support and resistance:http://i.imgur.com/RQqpabbl.jpg
GBPUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/NNCpllfl.jpg

ing into the future, the speech of the Bank Of England (BOE) Chief, ney which will come on Thursday will affect the speed at which the price of the EURUSD will change.
Now if we consider that for last week, we saw the British crashing down against the USD to the region of 1.4052, a fall which cleared all the gains it had recorded two weeks earlier. This showed us that economic recovery in the UK is not too impressive as it is not fast enough. Now, if we look further to the increased fears that UK will leave the EU as voting points towards an exit in a critical referendum to come two months from now; in face of likely to be increased interest rates hike from the FED. All this makes it likely that the GBP would continue falling against the American dollar maintaining a downtrend.


USDJPY

The American dollar went up against the Japanese yen on Monday in face of less trading activity on Monday due to holidays. Focus on Monday was majorly on the statements to come from FED officials if we will be seeing hikes in interest rates in the months to come. As such the pair moved up to the region of 113.58; which is a leap of over 0.40%.

The yen lost strength during the Asian session as concerns came up again that the Prime Minister of Japan Abe could hold off an increase in sales tax as well introduce a fiscal stimulus plan this Tuesday. The pair moved up consequently looking to settle during European session for a while around 113.60.The pair was forced lower owing to disappointing US data as the as core inflation dropped down into a region which is negative for the month of February. This gives the Federal Reserve serious thoughts as to raising interest rates.

Over four weeks now, we have seen the USDJPY having its consolidation in a descending channel following a very noticeable drop sometime in January. The drop was a product of massive push of investors for the Japanese yen being a safe-haven asset. Last week worries concerning the decline of the USD were reduced as impressive data came from the United States as well as comments from FED officials which supported the prospects of a rise in interest rates. Also coupled with poor macroeconomic news from Japan. Yet in spite of this, it was rather unusual when we saw the USD very early today losing its early gains to the yen such that the pair was pulled down to the region of 113.14. Dropping some points from 113.69 which marks its position as a daily high; but not farther than 113.50 before US data came in on regional manufacturing index as well as new home sales.

Support levels: 112.45, 112.66, 112.80
Resistance levels: 113.23, 113.37, 113.59

USDJPY support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/xYpWiaVl.jpg
USDJPY indicators: http://i.imgur.com/7unmkDUl.jpg



ing in the future, investors will be majorly concerned about the data to be released on the Tankan Manufacturing index. This is due to come on Thursday this week. This macroeconomic indicator could be seen as the equivalent of manufacturing PMI (purchasing manager's index) which we have from the United States. ing at the last releases on the indicator, we can say it has been steady as it had posted over eleven points for four times in the previous five months. Investors generally expect about eight points this time.
Now should this Tankan indicator post disappointing data in face of likely interest rates hike from the Federal Reserve, it is likely the Japanese yen will continue to fall.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs APRIL 4- 8

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


EURUSD

Unemployment statistics from Spain was encouraging as the amount of persons without employment had dropped in March. In the last three months, this was the first time there was a drop in this data from Spain. This relaxed worries over the how well europe's economy was doing given that Spain was europe's fourth largest economy. Going by a report from the Ministry of Employment from the country, there was a drop of 58200 in the amount of people without job.

In the report, Spain’s Employment Ministry said the number of unemployed people only rose by 2,200 when the many investors predicted it would rise by over 20,000. Before this macroeconomic data was published the EURUSD was at 1.3175; after the news the pair traded at 1.377.

Also this Monday, general unemployment rate for the Eurozone saw a significant decline, falling to its least level since 2012; as this put the euro under pressure as investors were further concerned over the recovery of the European economy. Coming in a report from Eurostat, the unemployment rate for the Eurozone had dropped to 10.3% from 10.4% we had last two months for the month of January. We have not had a reading from Eurozone this low since almost five years ago. This slightly pushed the EURUSD to 1.1372.


US employment reports were encouraging as it was reported that there was an addition of 215,000 jobs for the month of March to US economy. This was ahead of what many investors were expecting as general market expectations were at 205,000 jobs addition. Despite this upbeat data, it was thus disappointing for the Federal Reserve last week to decide against raising interest rates soonest. The EURUSD dropped to the region of 1.1360, getting support at the around 1.1358; coming up again to around 1.1388 which a little close to the price it started the week at.

Support levels: 1.0929, 1.1040, 1.1215
Resistance levels: 1.5101, 1.1612, 1.1787

EURUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/wSp6Yejl.jpg

EURUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/MGgakJHl.jpg


ing into the future, likely to affect the dollar this week is the release of minutes of meeting from Federal Open Market committee to come out on Wednesday. This could further draw down the USD as it looks more like it wouldn't make claims for interest rate hike. It is thus very possible the dollar is going to post further drops as investors recover from last week given Fed decision to hold off interest rate hike after it looked very likely there would be one so. This was a lot of Fed officials had previously indicated their support for a hike. So we could see further decline for the USD. If the USD is going to recover this week, it is likely to come from the Esther L. George's comments who is the president of the Federal Bank of Kansas City as she was the only one who didn't vote for keeping interest rate hike on hold.




GBPUSD

The American dollar got closer to a low level which it had posted since the last week of February. Thus losing some of the gains it had picked up against other principal currencies in the market. There was not much volatility in the early stage of trading on Monday as the FED weren't convinced against holding off interest rates despite impressive data from the US data on employment. The dollar thus dropped against the GBP as the pair climbed up by over 0.46% to 1.4289.

Construction activity from the UK was not bad for March going by reports from the published PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) release most recently. The data on UK construction activity for the month of March had a reading of 54.2 as there is no alteration from the one it posted for last two months. As such this didn't really contribute much to the price movement of the GBPUSD.

Consequently the GBPUSD climbed above the handle of 1.43 and was looking to go further. ing at this we saw that the drop we had in the GBPUSD for the last week Friday was more of a fake out as it was a brief reversal. Today, investors didn't really worry much about the possible exit of the UK from the Eurozone.

The pair thus traded in the region of 1.4380. Except the dip we had in February when Johnson Boris (mayor of London) jumped on the campaign for the UK to leave the EU; the GBPUSD so far this year has been closely in this region. Investors have been very cautious with the GBP as the market awaits the critical referendum in June (on whether or not the UK will pull out from the EU) as prices so far have failed to suggest there would be a significant surge in the GBPUSD. So far the resistance at 1.4550 has been tested severally with the pair having no success in breaking it.


Support levels: 1.3733, 1.3925, 1.4074
Resistance levels: 1.4415, 1.4607, 1.4756

GBPUSD support and resistance:http://i.imgur.com/CP7Ofgnl.jpg

GBPUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/tGOoVwrl.jpg


ing into the future, the pair had turned sharply around last week, recording gains of over 88 points. The pair subsequently ended last week at 1.4220. For the week, major news that would affect prices of the GBPUSD consequently is the data on Manufacturing data which we expect later this week. So far the dollar would have enjoyed massive boost had the FED followed expectations and hint a soon interest rate hike but Janet Yellen Fed Chair dashed such hopes as it seems we could be having just two or even less interest rate hike this year. Going over to the UK, the economy is not too strong as investors are bothered with inflation levels which have been so far weak. This makes the trend for now more neutral. But then it is possible the pair would move up a little bit further a little above the region of 1.4380.




USDJPY

It was really shocking that Fed officials adopted decision not to touch interest rates in the critical March meeting whole market was looking up to. Majority of investors were almost confident that an interest rate hike was likely given a strengthening labour market and growing inflation level. But as it seems now, it is getting more certain that instead of the four interest rates we were expecting this year, it is likely we will be having only two from the Federal Reserve as the Federal Reserve were looking more at the global economy than impressive US data.

Thus the USD/JPY suffered a decline losing over 188 points as there was a strong rebound in the yen last week. This was due to a very noticeable drop in the Nikkei 225 as reports from the Tankan data showed that there was a sharp fall as regards business confidence among major Japanese manufacturers. The reading for the Tankan data showed a distinct drop to +6 in Q1 from the +12 we had in Q4. This reading marks the least level the Tankan data had posted for almost three years now.

Going back to the US, we saw Non-farm payrolls doing better than what investors were anticipating, but this couldn't push the dollar up owing to the statements from Janet Yellen on leaving interest rates unchanged. Prior to the release of the data on Non farm payroll, investors were resorting to safe-haven assets. All the same, the USDJPY could not find its way below 112.00 which was a special support.

Support levels: 108.59,110.08, 110.83
Resistance levels: 113.07, 114.56, 115.31

USDJPY support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/0NMM25cl.jpg

USDJPY indicators: http://i.imgur.com/NscAvNJl.jpg


ing into the future, we are now almost certain we wouldn't be having interest rates hike soonest. Though the economy of Japan has not really been too impressive since the Bank of Japan took up negative interest rates. It is thus more possible that the Bank of Japan wouldn't pull down the yen giving the yen a boost to rise. Considering all these, it is more likely the trend would be bearish.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs APRIL 11- 15

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


EURUSD

The American dollar didn't really leave the region of its six-month lows on Monday where it traded lower against its principal currencies. No very significant data was released from the US today as the pair seemed stuck around six month lows in it's biggest pairs. The pair struggled to leave this region as the stance of the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates soonest clamped down on the dollar. Thus the EURUSD pair climbed up by over 0.28%.

Quite on a less busy Monday for the EURUSD, we had the pair trading without much action around the region of 1.1400. The pair couldn't easily move far past this region as it was slowed down by an improved European stock market. Lack of major data today really caused the pair to be sluggish today as we saw a weak price action from the pair.

The pair had moved up to highs which we have not seen for a day as some traders were looking more at selling owing to the lack of release of macroeconomic data on the pair. As such the pair went up struggling to break past the resistance of 1.1448. But it couldn't get to 1.1453 which has been the highest point the pair has gotten since January this year. It consequently fell down to 1.1438.

Later in the day, the American dollar looked to make a comeback as investors were already looking at the statements to come from Federal Reserve policy makers from the US which would be coming in course of the week. A good number of analysts in the market are having expectations that there would still be up to two interest rates this year in face of upcoming US inflation data. But then investors were very cautious in the market as they didn't want to have high hopes for the dollar given that bullish statements coming from other Federal Reserve officials have not been previously enough to convince Janet Yellen to be more in favour of interest rate increase.

Support levels: 1.1284, 1.1316 , 1.1354
Resistance levels; 1.1424, 1.1456, 1.1494
EURUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/y6bsCxtl.jpg

EURUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/Wnpj5sal.jpg


ing forward, minutes of meeting coming from the Federal Open Market committee were more dovish with the dollar battling hard through out last week to stage a comeback on impressive US data released. But then the US trade balance had come out above what the market was expecting, while data on non-manufacturing PMI also came out higher. Now a lot of investors have recovered from the disappointment of the federal being hesitant on raising interest rates. German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel had put more pressure on the euro when he admitted an exit of the UK from the EU Ais actually in the best interest of the UK. Considering all these, it is very likely the trend for the EURUSD would be downward.



USDJPY

The American dollar dropped heavily to 17-month lows today against the Japanese yen. This was majorly due to the warning which came from government officials in Japan. These officials warned about the possibility of the Japanese government deliberately cutting down the strength of the yen. The pair fell down dropping to 107.65 which has been a low for the pair; in fact the lowest for almost two years now.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga was majorly responsible for the drop of the American dollar on Monday as he revealed that Japan was looking very closely at the forex market in a bid to check an unbalanced growth of the yen. Consequently we saw the American dollar suffering a decline of over 2.98% against the yen. This fall brings it down to a combined fall of 10% since this year began.

In course of the Asian session, the USDJPY was unable to stage a significant comeback as it dropped to 107.60. This point is a low for many months now with no major US data being released for the day as the pair moved on yet failing to get past the region of 108.30 with no nearest sight of a growth in the pair for Monday. With statements coming from Kuroda governor of the Bank of Japan further piling pressure on the dollar.


Investors today were very reluctant to buy the USDJPY today even as the Federal Reserve doesn't look promising either with interest rates not to be raised any soon. The pair spent a while hovering around 108.20 which marked its 17-month low.

Support levels: 103.05, 105.55, 106.80
Resistance levels: 110.55, 113.05, 114.30
USDJPY support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/qEsBQMXl.jpg

USDJPY indicators: http://i.imgur.com/NscAvNJl.jpg

ing into the future, we all know that the American dollar is not really very attractive to investors when interest rates are low. So far the Japanese yen has been on the rise majorly for the year. This is because its safe-haven status is been supported by uncertainty about how well Europe's banking sector is doing added to the crashes we saw in the stock markets from China for some time now. The shocking move of the Bank of Japan to take up negative interest rates have not hit the yen down as the yen is still gathering strength. Yoshide Suga Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary sparked further interests on the yen with indications of possible intervention from the Japanese government. This this could cause the yen to possibly rise rise further against the dollar provided statements coming from the Federal Reserve officials this week are not too in favour of interest hike. So it is more likely the yen would rise further.

.


GBPUSD

For the GBPUSD, at the start of Monday, we saw quite a quiet trade session, as majority of trading activity today was on the USDJPY owing to major releases and statements coming from Japan. The pound was poised to rise higher, a good number of traders were reluctant to hold long positions on the pair due to renewed fears on the future of the UK in the EU.

The GBPUSD climbed higher on Monday as we saw very scanty major macroeconomic news coming from the US. Following an Asian session which saw reduced trading activity got the GBPUSD, the pair was further pushed up going up to 1.4224. It didn't really spend much time there as it eventually dropped down to about 1.4198.

In course of the trading day, the pound rose noticeably up impressively to levels we have not seen from the GBPUSD for almost three weeks. This is a sustained growth from last week as there was a rise in the demand for riskier assets as the trading day went on. The pair maintained its rise up ascending to 1-week highs as the USD failed to show signs of getting stronger. The GBPUSD consequently went up further to trade at 1,4255 though finding it difficult to break past the 1.43 handle.


This is not too surprising really to those who have been watching the pair very closely. The statement of Germany EU chief sprang up concern about if the United Kingdom would pull out of the EU. This reaction from the statement generating positive attention on the British pound. Coupled with reduced macroeconomic releases from the US, the rise for today was not too unlikely.

Support levels: 1.13719, 1.3880, 1,4000
Resistance levels: 1.4281 1.4442 1.4562
GBPUSD support and resistance:http://i.imgur.com/cMsvBIyl.jpg

GBPUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/K8rK2Lql.jpg

Now looking into the future, we would be expecting data on UK inflation this week. Major attention for the week will be on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which will be coming on Tuesday. As regards data on inflation coming from the UK, analysts are expecting a possible reading of 0.4% for last month. Data for the USD to be released this week look to be very positive as it is possible the dollar would stage a recovery this week. Thus the GBPUSD could be bearish.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs APRIL 18- 22

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX



EURUSD


There was a disappointment in the latest US retails sales reading as retail sales was reduced by about 0.3%. Many analyst in the forex weren't expecting the US retail sales data to be reduced more than 0.1%. As a result of this, a number of traders still hoped this would persuade the Federal Reserve to look towards interest rate soonest. But then hopes of any significant Federal move on interest rates was overshadowed by the general disappointment on Monday of the failed Doha meeting among major OPEC and non-OPEC countries. This sent oil prices on a fall which also affected the dollar as it fell likewise. Thus, the EURUSD had risen up against the dollar at the beginning of the trading day on Monday to the region of 1.130 after it began the week at 1.129.


Worse for the dollar was a discouraging reading from Consumer sentiment measured by the University of Michigan. This macroeconomic data has fallen to 89.7. This points mark the least point it has ever dropped to in almost a year. In a series of underperforming data from the US, only Unemployment meant well for the dollar as it had dropped to 253,000. This number is its least in the over 41 years. This data didn't really push many traders to action in Monday trading as the market on Monday was less focused on Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Major trading activity on the dollar was centered about the failure of oil producing countries to freeze oil output at January levels. With Saudi Arabia insisting that Iran must also cut production, the meeting failed to reach a decision.

This caused commodity currencies majorly the dollar to fall in Monday trading. As trading went on, the euro posted gains against the American dollar as it climbed up to 1.1331 which is a daily high. The EURUSD pair was majorly stuck to the region of the 1.1300 for most of the trading day. The dollar struggled against its major pairs as many investors had been hoping the meeting would be successful in pushing up oil prices. The prospects and hopes of success before the meeting had been more solid when Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum exporting countries OPEC had a agreed to preamble deal to freeze oil output. So it was disastrous when the hopes crashed on Monday and the dollar was really hurt.

Next to come on Thursday would be very vital announcement of the European Central Bank (ECB) in its its minimum bid rate. We don't expect the ECB to change rates following the failure of its easing program it had adopted last month. of . The EURUSD went further on its recovery rising higher after it had previously fallen to 1.1232 last week.

Support level: 1.1220, 1.1247, 1.1279
Resistance levels: 1.1338, 1.1365, 1.1397

EURUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/KL63ghZl.jpg

EURUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/aveXYiMl.jpg

ing forward, as the market recovers from the result of the failed meeting among OPEC and non-OPEC countries, investors will be shifting their attention to the interest rate decision from the ECB on Thursday. The ECB president Mario Draghi has vowed to do anything it takes to boost inflation. From the US, Federal Reserve President Jeffery Lacker voiced his support for four interest rate hikes this year. It is more likely the euro will drop from ECB's moves this Thursday. So if you combine this with the statement from the Federal Reserve president, it is likely the dollar would climb up again again the euro. So it is more possible the EURUSD trend would be bearish.




USDJPY

On Monday, the Japanese yen had risen against the American dollar to eighteen-month highs. This was enhanced by the safe-haven nature of the yen as there was a reasonable drop in oil prices following the failure of oil-exporting nations to come to a general agreement to reduce production. The failure of the much anticipated meeting had cut down on the appetite of investors for riskier assets hence turning to the yen. Thus USDJPY had fallen down to 107.85 a low not too distant from that it fell to last week at 107.62.

Many were looking up to Saudi Arabia to ensure the success of the meeting on Sunday and play a pivotal role in making sure daily production of oil doesn't over-exceed demand. But Saudi Arabia rather insisted Iran (who are bent on increasing production levels) must also agree to freeze output. Iran is poised to defy calls by Saudi Arabia as Iran is looking seriously at retuning to the volume it was operating before now that the sanctions from the West (due to the nuclear program of Iran) have been lifted. The USD/JPY fell a distance down of over 0.50% sliding well to 108.22.


Since 2016 began, we have been seeing the Japanese yen on the rise. This owing to the discomfort of investors with negative-interest-rate-policies coming from Europe. Eventually, investors feel safer with the Japanese yen which is a far less riskier asset. For some time now, officials in Japan have been signaling an intervention from Tokyo as the yen is gaining very fasting. But prospects of such intervention were reduced noticeably in the market on Monday as US indicated (at the G20 meeting) its disapproval for nations devaluing their currency deliberately.

As the Monday trading day went on, we saw the dollar trying to come up again as commodity currencies (hit by falling oil prices) tried to make a little comeback. The small move up for the dollar was encouraged as investors saw relief in a strike by workers from the Kuwait's oil and gas sector. The American dollar tried to pull back from 107.81 which marked its low for the session. With the pair looking to make up a bit to a region of 108.80.

Support levels: 106.95, 107.39 , 108.10
Resistance levels: 109.25, 109.69, 110.40

USDJPY support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/0axbWvUl.jpg

USDJPY indicators: http://i.imgur.com/FwxXweV.jpg



ing into the future, poor economic data from the US doesn't seem to help the dollar. The slump in oil prices which has been greatly affecting the dollar might not ending anytime soon as Saudi Arabia has threatened to increase their production capacity should a formal agreement not be reached to support oil prices soonest. Iran listening to Saudi Arabia to cut down oil production is very unlikely owing to tensions between both nations as both of them are virtually fighting themselves in Syria as well as Yemen. Thus we expect a sustained slide in oil prices, this could make more traders turn to the yen being a safe-haven currency while the USD would go down with the oil prices. Thus for now, the USDJPY trend is most likely bearish.






GBPUSD



On Monday, the GBPUSD was really unstable at the beginning of trading for the week. The pair had dropped as low as 1.1414, it gradually scaled up back to 1.1419. Major concerns in the market rotated about how the EU referendum would turn out. There was a rise from 6% to 17% for those who are not really decided on leaving the EU or staying back either.

The GBPUSD went down in course of the trading day due to data from inflation data. Treasury report claimed that British households would become £4,300 poorer should the UK leave the EU. Opponents agitating for the UK to leave the EU didn't agree with the claim that British households could get £4300 poorer in case of an EU pull out. Consequently, the UK chancellor echoed his fears as he warned UK voters to exercise more caution in their push for an exit from the EU as a pull out of the UK from the EU could make British households poorer for a very long time.

The GBP/USD thus suffered a decline to the region of 1.4130 when trading began on Monday; worsened still by the slump in oil prices but as the strike by Kuwait like and gas workers came up, the pair managed a comeback to the 1.4200 handle.

Going over to the US, data on New York manufacturers report has come in improved as the survey had added about 9.5 points, this increase bringing it to the highest this data had posted for a year. Federal Reserve doesn't really look to be aiming to increase interest rates soon as Janet Yellen revealed they were looking at the global economy and not just the US economy. But many investors weren't looking at these data as they had their eyes on the outcome of the party leader vote in a build up to upcoming US general elections.

Support levels: 1.4014, 1.4072, 1.4174
Resistance levels: 1.4014, 1.4072, 1.4174

GBPUSD support and resistance:http://i.imgur.com/SVvxHtZl.jpg

GBPUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/qiR5KETl.jpg

ing into the future, latest analysis revealing the harm the UK would face if they leave the EU have persuaded many against the idea of leaving, thus strengthening the pound for the meantime. Not very meaningful data would be coming from the US this week. This added with falling oil prices and a weakening dollar (as the Federal Reserve may not be touching interest rates soonest) makes it more likely that the GBP would rise against the dollar.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs APRIL 25- 29

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


EURUSD

The American dollar failed to record significant gains against its major pairs on Monday. This was worsened with disappointing macroeconomic data from the US housing sector. Reports coming from the Department of Commerce in the United States had revealed that there was a drop in the new home sales. The readings posted by this data last showed a fall to 510,000 units; thus amounting to a drop of over 1.4%. Many in the market had been expecting a rise to 520,000 units from February which is about a climb of 1.0%.

Yet the EURUSD didn't respond significantly to this weak data as it didn't change much from its session highs, trading in the region of 1.1256.

This was after similarly disappointing results emerged from Germany today as the results for the IFO survey for the month of April showed a decline in business confidence as firms complained that working conditions have not been supportive. This casting doubt on the economic recovery of the EU. This had brought the pair to around 1.1262 which was its peak reached during the European trading session.

Last week majorly, Mario Draghi had maintained his stand on Thursday that the ECB would make use of all its monetary policies to get inflation back to the target of 2%. After this we saw the EURUSD reacting greatly to this statement from the president of the European Central Bank (ECB). Such that counting from the last meeting of the ECB, we have seen the pair move by over 600 pips getting to 1.1464 which we have not seen for since October last year.

Support levels: 1.0978, 1.1098, 1.1159
Resistance levels: 1.1314, 1.1460, 1.1521

EURUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/a7Q3cZ3l.jpg

EURUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/r3lXGaDl.jpg



Now looking into the future, data from the US today from the housing sector was disappointing. We thus look to that to come on Tuesday on US durable goods order as well as consumer confidence.

Yet data from this is not really expected to contribute much to timing of interest rates as Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve has repeatedly maintained that the Federal Reserve has its eyes watching the global economy more than the US economy so that interest rate hikes don't prove too soon. Thus even dovish look of the next federal reserve meeting wouldn't really cut down on the dollar.

Rather what would affect the EURUSD more likely is Mario Draghi statement from the ECB. Mario has insisted that the ECB would strive to push inflation levels higher. If you combine this with the fact that investors in the market are already used to with the persistence of the FED to hold interest rates and that no major data would be coming from Europe in course of the week. Then it is more likely the EUR would go down against the dollar thus making the EURUSD trend bearish.




USDJPY


At the beginning of the trading day on Monday, we saw the dollar climbing down from its 3-week high against the Japanese yen. This was as focus was majorly around the next moves to come from the Bank of Japan as many investors were expecting the Bank of Japan to adopt more measures to cut down on the strengthening yen. The USDJPY went down to about 111.30 which if compared to 111.88 which were its overnight highs.

As the day went we saw the dollar slipping further down in face of disappointing data coming from the US new home sales. The USDJPY went further down to 111.10.

For last week, the dollar initiated a small recovery against the yen as it gained over 2% over the yen. This was caused by Bloomberg emphasizing the possibility of the Bank of Japan expanding its negative interest policy which the bank of Japan launched far back in January.

Fast forward to Monday, the recovery of the USD against the yen was greatly hampered as traders appeared to be taking profits and selling the American dollar. This was clearly out of place as there is yet the big possibility that the bank of Japan could be bringing on more policies to weaken the yen. The USD thus fell down from highs of 3 weeks.

The market is really divided as regards the next moves from the bank of Japan. Many are expecting the bank not to bring on more easing policies as the bank reviews how much results the negative interest rates have brought.

Also investors are watching with interest to what decision the US Federal Reserve could arrive though a decision not to increase the interest rates wouldn't be too shocking. The last December hike in interest rates from the FED was actually the first in about 10 years. Though it is more likely that interest rates will not change. Yet the meeting is expected to give investors a hint of whether any interest rate could come up by June.


Support levels: 105.17, 106.50, 109.14
Resistance levels:113.11, 114.44, 117.08

USDJPY support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/ULGdbwHl.jpg

USDJPY indicators: http://i.imgur.com/GmPh8Qtl.jpg

Now looking into the future, investors expect the Bank of Japan to try to reduce the increasing yen. This will generate positive attention for the yen. Again unsteadiness in oil prices will make more investors turn to the yen being a safe haven asset while cutting down the USD. Added with no hopes of interest rates hike from the Federal Reserve anytime soonest, it is more likely the USD would be going down further against the yen.


GBPUSD

Trades for now on the GBPUSD majorly centers around the future of Britain in the EU. This Monday, we saw the sterling rising against the dollars as hopes increased that Britain would still be staying in the EU. These hopes that Britain will not leave the EU were well supported after Barack Obama, President of the US aired his opinion too about the supposed future of Britain in the EU.

Official statistics from Betfair betting exchange discloses a formal drop from 37%-25% in the chances of Britain leaving the EU come the referendum to hold by June 23.
In course of the Asian trade, the sterling made a climb against the dollar; rising to 1.4435. Sometime last week, the British pound was enjoying its best week again the dollar since the month of March began as the odds are now in favour of Britain remaining in the EU.

Last sunday, President obama had called on Britain not to leave the EU advising them they would suffer the inconvenience of waiting about ten years to again enjoy free trade deal with the US should they pull out of the group. As a major feature of Obama's visit to London, he regularly pointed out the hurt that could befall Britain should they insist on pulling out of the EU.

The GBPUSD has over time gotten to peaks the pair has not reached since the middle of February as President Obama has called for the Britain not to leave the EU group which comprises of 28 members. Thus we saw the pair getting to 1.4518 which is a high for one day but didn't spend much time above the 1.45 handle as it subsequently fell down to 1.4472.

The GBP so far has suffered a decline of over 8.5% since talks of the referendum to hold on June 23 began having effects on the GBPUSD from far back in November last year. Even a number of big vital banks have as well released warning that British pound could suffer a crisis which could cause the GBPUSD to decline by over 1.20 points should Britain still leave.


Support levels: 1.3882, 1.4006, 1.4203
Resistance levels: 1.4524, 1.4648, 1.4845

GBPUSD support and resistance:http://i.imgur.com/CVmRLWnl.jpg

GBPUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/5ykKFUkl.jpg


ing into the future, last week we had British pound gaining on the dollar. This could continue this week for the fact that the federal reserve do not look like raising interest rates till July. So a more likely insistence of the FED to keep off interest hikes would make the dollar less attractive. This added to the gains the pound is making from a more certain future on the EU, the pound would make more gains against the dollars.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs May 2- 6

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX



EURUSD

The EURUSD added strength on Monday to move through 1.1500. This increase in the pair will mark the first time the pair has risen to this height since August last year in face of prospects that the Federal Reserve wouldn't be raising interest rates soonest.

The euro has been on a steady rise for over five days now. This run of form for the European currency is noticeably its best counting as far back as September 2015. This is following data on manufacturing which reveled that the Eurozone has exceeded expectation.

The PMI (purchasing managers' index) for the Eurozone had risen to touch 51.7 for last month. A lot of investors were thinking the reading wouldn't change from the 51.5 it posted last for the month of March. Thus the EURUSD hit 1.1491 which is about a 7-month high.

On a trading Monday, we saw that the American dollar had dropped down against many of its major pairs with increasing frustration among traders. This frustration owing to the reluctance of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even by June 12. This consistency in the weakness of the dollar had made it easy for the euro to climb against the dollar for a consecutive third month in April.

This run of three months gain of the euro against the dollar would now set the place for the longest duration of gains for the euro against the dollar for about three years now. This is in face of uncertainty that policy makers from the US are yet to get persuaded into believing a hike in interest rates would not hurt the US economy amidst a poorly performing global economy.


Impressive signs of economic recovery from Europe coupled with less encouraging macroeconomic data from the US has put the dollar under heavy downward pressure. Improvement in the US labour market has not been sufficient in pulling the dollar up. While the coast seems clear for the euro as data from last Friday revealed that Europe's economy has been on an improvement with unemployment even falling to lows last seen five years back.

Support levels: 1.1041, 1.1128, 1.1286
Resistance levels: 1.1531, 1.1618, 1.1776

EURUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/9D8bGkQl.jpg

EURUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/R86u5eul.jpg

ing into the future, so far we can say the EUR/USD enjoyed a remarkable run last week. Well, with GDP growth for the euro beating expectations as well as unemployment rate diving down outstandingly, the euro is looking very good. So far we have seen the ECB showing less intent in curbing the increases of the euro coupled with the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will not increase interest rates even next month. Thus we don't expect the euro to go down against the dollar any time soonest. The trend for the EURUSD is likely to remain bullish.




USDJPY


This Monday, we saw the Japanese yen rising up to new highs against a weakening dollar. The rise of the yen against the dollar brought the USDJPY to lows of eighteen months. This is as investors are worried whether or not Japanese authorities would introduce measures in the market to possibly curtail the rapid gains of the yen.


The USD/JPY crashed to 106.16. This is one of the least points it has fallen to since 2014 October. For some time now, the dollar has been on the receiving end of losses against the yen even falling down further last week by a margin of over 4.44%. If we track back, we will see that this decline in the USDJPY is notably the worst it has experienced since 2008 where we had the memorable global financial crisis.


At the end of the last meeting on Thursday by the Bank of Japan, the bank held back from introducing new easing policies. With the consistent gains in the yen for some time now, it was very likely that the bank would adopt further easing measures.


Though this was not sure as the US Treasury had reminded Japan of the pledges they made at the G7 and G20 meeting where Japan was cautioned against deliberately intervening in the foreign exchange market to clamp down on the gains of the yen. With the US treasury revealing its content with the situation of the yen and dollar as it described the current dollar-yen market was "orderly".


The pair had gone past 106.12 in the first hours of Asian trade. This is as investors can't fully cut out the chances of the Bank of Japan still bringing up easing measures. In fact this is even possible as in course of the weekend, Taro Aso who is the finance minister of Japan had revealed his deep concerns with the rising yen. In his very words he described the situation as "extremely concerning,".


Support levels: 98.79, 102.53, 104.41

Resistance levels: 110.03, 113.77, 115.65

USDJPY support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/Vt3OQGNl.jpg

USDJPY indicators: http://i.imgur.com/icHzvBAl.jpg

Now looking into the future, we have seen the USD/JPY post very big losses so far last week. The pair had even gone as bad as closing the week at 106.23; the last time it closed this low for a week was in October 2014.


Now the steady gains recorded by the yen would seem to force the Bank of Japan into adopting easing measures. But this is not too easy as the US has said they would be looking closely at Japan moves to intervene in the foreign exchange market. Moreover Japan had pledged in the G20 meeting not to really intervene and manipulate the yen. This added with the chances that no interest rate hike is coming any soon from the federal reserve makes it very likely that the yen will keep gaining against the dollar.




GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair began the week with no much trading action. This weak trading activity we had on the pair for this Monday was as a result of little notable macroeconomic news coming from the United Kingdom. The clamour around the pound as to whether Britain would leave the EU didn't not really spur much trading action today.

Thus, the pair simply drifted around the region of 1.4655. In face of lack of macroeconomic data from the UK, investors looked to the US where on Thursday data had revealed a slowdown in US growth. The American gross domestic product had increased by only 0.5% which was rather disappointing. Reports coming last Friday consequently showed that personal consumption, as well as personal spending had clicked up for the month of March by 0.1%.


This contributed on Monday as the GBPUSD went on in course of the day to trade close to 1.4658 and then falling again to the region of 1.4655. The pair still rallied up to 1.4696 as it strived to break past the 1.4700. This was as investors were majorly waiting for direction to go on the pair from the news to be released on ISM manufacturing PMI data. This would help in estimating how well the US manufacturing sector has been performing.

A weak American dollar which is not any helped by the Federal Reserve fell a number of sessions against the British pound. The central bank dashed hopes of a recovering dollar as it once again voted 9 to 1 to hold on to the present policy in April. This has brought the gains posted by the GBPUSD to two straight weeks. Hope in the recovery of the dollar is getting slimmer as chances of Janet Yellen of the federal reserve changing her mind on interest rates is quite low.


Support levels: 1.4181, 1.4292, 1.4448
Resistance levels: 1.4715, 1.4826, 1.4982

GBPUSD support and resistance:http://i.imgur.com/vkRwMSpl.jpg

GBPUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/CiCfes7l.jpg

ing into the future, on the longer term, traders would be bothered about the upcoming referendum which will decide the fate of the United Kingdom in the EU. But until then,major turns in the GBPUSD for this week will be decided by how well the UK and the US economy would be performing. This would be shown by if data from the US beats that from the UK or the other way around. Thus we aren't certain of the direction of the trend though the extended weakness of the dollar makes it more likely the GBPUSD would gain further.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs May 9- 13

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX



EURUSD

The American dollar started rather slowly on Monday trading. This was after figures coming out of China were below expectations. The dollar index which gives an indication of how well the dollar is performing against its major rivals, came out stronger coming up to 94.951.

The American dollar had fallen down last week owing to data coming from US which indicated that the US economy had added few jobs for last month. The labour market for the month of April showed that the US economy had made an addition of 160,000 when analysts were expecting an addition of 200,000. Also from the US, wage growth data was compensation for the poor data on US jobs as average hourly earnings had risen up to 2.5% which is a high of three months. This drop in US jobs was the biggest we had seen in over six years such that the dollar finished last week not too strongly.


This Monday, the EURUSD didn't show much movement despite the heavy movements with which the pair ended for last week. Traders this Monday were getting more interested in the dollar again as William Dudley who is the New York Federal Reserve President had said it was yet possible we will be having two rate hikes this 2016 even in face of data revealing that the US economy was not doing too well as regards job addition.


The EURUSD held trades at 1.1407 this Monday. The pair struggled to move past the region of 1.1420. During the European trading session, the pair struggled to go up to 1.1615. Data coming from Germany showed us that the Germany Factory Orders had risen up by over 1.8% for the month of April while the EU Sentix Investor confidence index moved up to 6.1. The last reading we had from the EU Sentix Investor Confidence was 5.7. Yet impressive data coming from Germany still doesn't show a sustainable recovery of the global economy.

Support levels: 1.1090, 1.1238, 1.1320
Resistance levels:1.1550, 1.1698, 1.1780

EURUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/1DkOwVwl.jpg

EURUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/kHaQUA1l.jpg


ing into the future, hopes of two interest rates from the Federal Reserve this year are supporting the dollar for now, but this may not enough to support the long term recovery of the dollar. Hopes of referendum of Britain leaving europe has been coming down supporting the growth of the euro. Data so far from the US have not been generally impressive, so there is no push on the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. Considering all this, it is more likely the euro would rise higher against the dollar.




USDJPY


The Japanese yen went down against the American dollar to its least level on Monday. This was as the Japanese Minister revealed the preparedness of Tokyo to readily intervene in the movement of the yen should the strong need arise. This declaration of intent from Japan sent the yen tumbling down agains the dollar. The USDJPY today went up by over 1% coming up to 108.22 yen.


The yen for some time now since the start of the year has been recording gains against the dollar in face of stimulus measures that Japanese authorities have adopted so far. This is as the finance minster of Japan expressed fears that further increase of the yen would put the nation's fiscal policies at risk. Such fears from Taro Aso, the Japanese finance minister made more solid the possibility that Japan would intervene directly in the currency market.

Last month, the US Treasury revealed that they would be watching out for currency manipulation from Japan. Furthermore the US Treasury had earlier made the call to remind Japan of the commitments it pledged to the G20 and G7 not to interfere with the forex situation of the yen.

Thus on Monday here, we saw the USDJPY pair looking to move upwards, striving to break into the 109.00 handle. After staying for an extended period of time in the 108.75 region.

ing forward, the statement today from Taro Aso that Japan is well prepared to defy international pressure and possibly devalue the yen. So far this year,, the yen has gained over 1500 points. This is in sharp contradiction of the stimulus measures the Bank of Japan had been adopting to put the growth of the yen under check.

Support levels: 104.05, 104.80, 105.94
Resistance levels: 107.83, 108.58, 109.72

USDJPY support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/sE8QBQGl.jpg

USDJPY indicators: http://i.imgur.com/9KfMcEKl.jpg

Now traders are already coming to terms with the possibility that Federal Reserve would not be increasing interest rates as latest data from the US economy doesn't look to pressure Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve to touch interest rates. But then traders worry that Japan means business and could really intervene in the yen true to their words. So for now, such fears would keep the yen down against the dollar. So it is more likely the yen will drop lower against the dollar.




GBPUSD

The British pound on Monday was higher against many of its rival except the American dollar as trading began on Monday. The improvement in the US dollar was quite contrasting given that by last week, the dollar was ending last week with little strength.


Before now, the sterling has increased against the dollar even moving up to 12 weeks high as little hopes were available on whether interest rates could be raised soonest. This was as US job data failed to match expectations at a time when very impressive US jobs data would make interest rate hike more likely.


Official polls carried out on the referendum as to if the United Kingdom would be remaining in the EU were mixed. As there was little difference between the number of support for United Kingdom staying and the support for the United Kingdom leaving the EU. This is despite the intervention of President Barack Obama who advised Britain against leaving the EU as it could greatly afford bilateral trades with the US.


Thus this monday, we had the GBPUSD falling down to 1.4373 which happens to be a low of about three weeks. This was in sharp contrast to last week where poor job from the US greatly affected the GBPUSD causing it go rise. On monday, the GBPUSD spent large period of time in the area of 1.4480, drifting steadily about 1.4405 which was not far from its opening price when trading began on Monday. This coupled with the scarcity of macroeconomic data from the UK had meant the GBPUSD didn't see great movement on a trading Monday for the pair.


Data coming from the US had indicated growth in average wage. Such encouraging data draws attention to the possibility of still having more than one interest rate hike for this year. This possibility was also confirmed by William Dudley of the Federal Reserve who said it was not out of place if we still see two interest rate hike from the federal reserve for 2016.

Support levels:1.4369, 1.4382, 1.4402
Resistance levels: 1.4409, 1.4422, 1.4429

GBPUSD support and resistance:http://i.imgur.com/Oz7uOFql.jpg

GBPUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/JMJMjrCl.jpg


This would raise hopes in the dollar for the meantime. The upcoming referendum on the EU membership for the United Kingdom is pressing the British pound down as traders worry what will be the fate of the pound when the UK eventually pulls out. Data on PMIs (purchasing managers index) for last month for the UK cast doubt on how well the UK economy was performing. Combining both factors, it is more likely that the GBP would still remain down against the pound. This makes the trend of the GBPUSD to be more likely bearish.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs May 16- 20

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX



EURUSD

The American dollar went down today which was more of a quiet trading day. The drop in the dollar was majorly because of data coming from the United States on manufacturing data. This cast concerns on investors concerning how well the US economy was performing. As such the EURUSD went up to about 1.1290. This would mark a climb up for the pair of about 0.12%.

Data drawn from the index of manufacturing from the New York Federal Reserve indicated a drop in the posting for the month of May. This would notably be the first time this data had dropped since February. Official data which were released from the US today showed that shipments and new orders turned negative. The index went down to -9.5 for the month of May which marked a decline from the 9.6 it posted just last month.This was a big fall as general market anticipation was about 6.5. Thus the EURUSD pair went up to 1.1331 which is a climb up from 1.1322 it posted ahead of the data.

This was a swift turn around as just on Friday last week, all pointed to a sustained recovery of the dollar with retail sales data even beating expectations impressively. The US commerce department had reported a increase of 1.3% for the month of April. This was accompanied with an encouraging consumer sentiment which had persuaded investors of the health of the US economy.

Fast forward to today, the pair took abandoned its move up as the data coming from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showing a disappointing drop in general business conditions index. Thus drawing the dollar down, such that the euro rose against the dollar as the pair later went on today to trade at 1.1328 moving up by over 0.13%.

Support levels: 1.1151, 1.1216, 1.1260
Resistance levels: 1.1369, 1.1434, 1.1478

EURUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/9ncnvFAl.jpg

EURUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/rxwrnP3l.jpg

Now looking into the future. We can see this surprising move up for the euro as temporary. This is because we yet to get major macroeconomic data from Europe for the week, added to the brief weakness of the dollar is the political uncertainty hovering over the US as elections draw near with investor particularly worried of a possible Trump victory. But then it is more likely the pair would reverse and the euro go down as the ECB (European Central Bank)meeting this week looks to hint towards additional easing policies which could cut down on the demand of the euro.


USDJPY

This Monday, the Japanese yen went down as Japan still maintained its intentions of possibly intervening in the market. This reminder of Japan's willingness to possibly clamp on the yen comes as Japan prepares to convene a G7 meeting. Such threats coming from Japan forced the yen down which was recoding early gains as trading began on Monday. The yen had earlier posted gains as data coming from China fell below expectations. Data coming from Chinese investment, retail sales as well as factory output had all dropped below forecasts. Consequently the USDJPY went up to 108.83 as the dollar rose against the pound by over 0.16%.

Masatsugu Asakawa who occupies the position of Vice finance minister for international affairs had revealed that the G20 and G7 countries had held discussions pertaining to arresting unfavorable currency movements. That with these discussions and understanding among the major global economies, it would not be improper for Japan to intervene if the gains of the yen were too excessive. According to Asakawa, such arrangements gives Japan freedom from the binding US treasury reports which warned Japan against intervening in the foreign exchange market to cut down on the gains of the yen.

Thus investors became more cautious with the yen. As it now appears that Japan would soonest be introducing further easing monetary policies so that Japan can still realize its inflation target. Such prospects were more solid when Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan said a good number of conditions were in place for Japan to bring on more easing measures. The dollar thus climbed up to 108.83 yen which is over a jump of 0.20% after it had gone as high as 109.57 on Friday.


Support levels: 104.78, 105.91, 107.27
Resistance levels: 109.76, 110.89, 112.25

USDJPY support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/WEBdH39l.jpg

USDJPY indicators: http://i.imgur.com/OGzNmmil.jpg

ing into the future, for now the Japanese yen looks to be down for quite a while as renewed threats are coming from Japan indicating their readiness to intervene in the yen. But then unstable macroeconomic data from the US could further reduce the pressure on the federal reserve to reduce interest rates which would make the dollar less attractive. Thus major focus in course of the week will be on the GDP for the first quarter from Japan. Should the data come out weak, the yen is sure to spring up against the dollar in face of the threats of intervention.



GBPUSD


Focus on the GBPUSD has been about the upcoming EU referendum which would decide whether the United Kingdom stays in the EU or not. The GBPUSD rates didn't change much today as crucial economic forecasts from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) were not really positive. Such forecasts coming from the CBI showed that the growth in the UK economy was quite slow as investors were very skeptical of the possible outcome of the EU referendum on their investments. Thus today, we didn't see much trading activity from the pair as GBPUSD hovered around the region of 1.4373.

Now going back to the crucial debate of the upcoming referendum which the pound greatly relies on for now, the move for the "Leave" campaign got more intense as Boris Johnson, who is notably identified as the head of the ‘Leave’ campaign, stirred up a controversy. This was when as he made comparison between the goals of the EU and that of Hitler that just like Hitler, the EU is desperately trying to exploit member states to recreate needless "Golden Age".

From the US, disappointing data coming from China has weakened the dollar. The dollar lost further strength as the index from New York Federal Reserve on manufacturing conditions had taken a dive down. The GBPUSD thus had gone up to above 1.4372 after it had earlier on traded at 1.4364.


Support levels: 1.4197, 1.4269, 1.4311
Resistance levels: 1.4425, 1.4497, 1.4539

GBPUSD support and resistance:http://i.imgur.com/rIlzTW4l.jpg

GBPUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/NK254Prl.jpg


ing into the future, Last week we saw the GBP/USD losing about 21 points owing fears of a possible UK exit from the EU. The percentage of supporters for Britain to stay in the EU is still higher as official polls put it in the range of 70%. This week will present very crucial data on the GBPUSD as or inflation data as well as jobs data. One major data to shape the GBPUSD this week is the Bank of Inflation Data. Investors will be critically looking to this data as inflation levels are for now really low. Should the Bank of England still be intent on keeping inflation levels low, the pound would go down noticeably against the dollar.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs May 23- 27

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX

EURUSD

On Monday, the euro went down following data released which showed that the speed of growth in the private sector region of the Eurozone had dropped down to a low of sixteen months for the month of May. This was despite reasonable growth coming from France and Germany. Thus today, we had the EURUSD going down to 1.1209 which is a decline of about 0.13%. This fall brings the pair closer to 1.1176 which was the least point the pair had fallen to for almost 10 weeks now.

Today saw a weakening euro after the preliminary reading of the euro zone composite PMI (purchasing managers’ index). This economic indicator tries to estimate the combined output of both the service sector and the manufacturing sector measuring growth of private sector in Europe. The reading had slid down from 53.0 which it posted last month to 52.9. This fall as said brings it down to sixteen months lows.


The report was released on monday after data released on the German private sector had shown a growth. This month's impressive posting from the German private sector would mark the first time this indicator would actually post impressive readings this year. On the other hand, the private sector in France had even grown at an improved speed-its best in almost twenty eight weeks. Yet these impressive data from France and Germany were not enough to support the euro as they were yet overshadowed by the disappointing preliminary data of the Eurozone composite PMI. Thus, the euro retreated down to $1.1190 which is decline of about 0.28%.


From the US, the dollar gained support from the April minutes of meeting of the Federal Reserve which had shown that there is a strong possibility that the federal reserve may raise interest rates by June. William Dudley who is the New York Federal Reserve President revealed last week said that the US economy boasts sufficient strength to prompt interest rates hikes this July or earlier by June. Such sentiments of soon interest rate hikes were supported by Eric ngren, Boston Fed president who said the US economy was approaching very closely the needed conditions to be met to warrant possible interest rates hikes. The EURUSD went further to touch lows of 1.1200.

Support levels: 1.1065, 1.1131, 1.1176
Resistance levels: 1.1287, 1.1353, 1.1398

EURUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/msZmGf6l.jpg

EURUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/P9d4iiKl.jpg

ing into the future, the market is full of speculations that the upcoming June meeting of the Federal Reserve would mark a significant push for interest rate hike. This has greatly boosted the dollar thus suppressing the euro. The dollar thus looks set to enjoy a run of gains against the euro for now. This makes the trend of the EURUSD likely bearish.



USDJPY

Trade data coming from Japan on Monday were notably impressive. This brought the yen back up against the dollar as the yen had earlier on been suffering three weeks losses against the American dollar. The Japanese yen was well supported after this data had shown that trade surplus from Japan for the month of April came out as high as ¥823.5 billion. This was well exceeding anticipated figures put forward by analysts who were expecting something in the region of ¥493 billion. This even suppressed a strengthening dollar supported by strong sentiments of June interest hike from the Federal Reserve.

Other than this, reports released on Japanese factory activity revealed that factory activity from the Asian giants was squeezed and reduced at the greatest speed in over thirty six months now as there was a decline in new orders. The dollar thus went down to 109.42 yen which is about a fall of 0.60%.

Also data released on Japan's export had also shown a decline this April of over 10% as compared to what it posted same time last year. This Monday, thus we had the USDJPY falling down past 109.60 thus retreating from the highs of last week which it set at 109.67. This would make a fall of over 0.37% last week on the USDJPY.

It would now appear that these string of unimpressive data would push the Bank of Japan further to introduce more stimulus measures as against gains of the yen. But then it is not very clear that Japan would clamp down on further gains of the yen by intervention. This is as a group of the finance ministers of the seven biggest economies in the world met on Saturday with the US further cautioning Japan against intervention aimed at deliberately weakening the yen. The USDJPY thus went down further on Monday from 110.58's high of almost a month dropping down to 109.44.

Daily Support levels: 109.01, 109.43, 109.75
Resistance levels: 110.49, 110.91, 111.23

USDJPY support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/EMqxi1Ll.jpg

USDJPY indicators: http://i.imgur.com/OGzNmmil.jpg

ing into the future, even in face of warnings from the US, should the gains in the yen be sustained added with unimpressive growth and low inflation levels, the Bank of Japan could stubbornly go ahead with its threats of intervention to devalue the yen. Thus since we need data on inflation levels to hint at the direction of the Bank of Japan, we would be looking at data to come on Tokyo Core CPI. This inflation indicator would tell us the needed inflation levels to know whether or not to expect intervention moves as well as easing measures from Japan. But for now, it appears the yen would maintain its gains against the dollar.



GBPUSD


The British pound had dropped down on Monday after its had gained over 1% last week against American dollar. This is as there were still concerns among traders over the June 23 referendum which could bring about Britons casting their votes to exit the EU. Such worries moved traders towards safe haven assets.

David Cameron Prime Minister as well as finance minister George Osborne gave warnings that should Britons vote to leave the EU, Britain could suffer a recession running into twelve months and cause Britain to possibly lose about 500,000 jobs.

This fears of a UK exit from the EU played a significant role in the movements of the GBPUSD. Reports coming from the UK Treasury Report had predicted that UK's economy would experience job cuts of about 800,000 across two years should the June 23 referendum result in the UK leaving the EU. In the words of Chancellor George Osborne, a Leave vote would result in an "immediate and profound" economic shock. Going further to reveal that growth could decline by about 3%-6% if the UK leave the EU. All this brought the GBPUSD to a low of 1.4484 coming down from the region of 1.4475.


On the other hand, demand for the American dollar has been increasing as minutes of meeting of the Federal Reserve had brought up again the hopes that come this June, we could see interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. As Fed officials had demonstrated strong expectations of interest rates hikes this June should growth in the US economy come at an impressive pace for the second quarter of the year with healthy data on inflation and employment. But having earlier traded as high as $1.4550, the sterling fell down to $1.4464 which is over a decline of 0.1% as riskier assets fell as well.


The dollar appears much more attractive now supported by speculations of interest hikes coming soonest. San Francisco Fed J.Williams had expressed his calculations of the appropriateness of 2-3 rate hikes this year as well as 3-4 hikes in following year. He also expressed his hopes further that inflation in the US could come down. This brought the GBPUSD down crashing past the 1.45 handle.

This is quite contrasting to last week when the GBP/USD had made reasonably strong gains with the pair moving up as far as 150 points. In fact, the British pound was among the most impressive currencies for last week about the world's largest ten economies.

Daily Support levels:1.4324, 1.4404, 1.4451
Resistance levels: 1.4578, 1.4658, 1.4705

GBPUSD support and resistance:http://i.imgur.com/mem4NpRl.jpg

GBPUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/lhl7MvMl.jpg

ing into the future, considering the sound prospect of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates this June, the dollar would be strong for a while. Coupled with the uncertainty of June 23 referendum pressing down on the pound, the strengthening dollars would go up against the pound. Thus the trend of the GBPUSD could be bearish.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs May 30 - June 3

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX


EURUSD

Today Monday, the American dollar recorded gains against the euro. This was as the dollar was well boosted by comments coming from Janet Yellen the Federal Reserve chair. These comments pointed strongly in the direction of interest rates hike soonest. Janet Yellen had precisely indicated we could have interest rates in the closest months to come saying it "was appropriate" for the Federal Reserve to increase US interest rates "gradually and cautiously" if the growth in the US labour market as well as the US economy is maintained.
Thus today we saw the EURUSD pair moving up past 1.1125. This is quite close to 1.1098 which is a 10-week lows it had fallen to overnight.


There was much reduced trade today as markets in New York and London were shut observing a public holiday. Although European CPI data were quite positive; yet they were not strong enough to push the euro against the dollar as the hopes of interest rates which had been expected for too long had strongly supported the dollar.

The last time we had hike in interest rates was far back in December last year (which was almost the first time we saw US interest rates hike in about ten years). Janet Yellen had been particularly cautious of increasing interest rates pointing to a weak global economy. Certainly, should interest rates be increased, the American dollar would be the centre of attraction in the market. Also suggesting an interest rate hike soonest were statements coming from James Bullard who is the St. Louis Fed President. According to him today Monday, global markets seemed to be “well-prepared” for a possible interest rate hike from the US this summer, but he didn't dive further into details of what date particularly we could have the policy move.

Data coming from the United States had already been indicating a strengthening US economy. This is as the anticipated slowdown in the first quarter growth in the US economy was not as sharp as initial estimates had suggested. The US first quarter GDP-Growth had been revised upwards. Gross domestic product had gone up by a margin of 0.8% annual rate- initial estimates had suggested a growth of just 0.5% last month. And then the US economy had gone up by 1.4% according to the US Commerce Department. The EURUSD pair thus went up further moving up to 1.1132; an upward move of about 0.15% from the trough of two and half months the pair had fallen to overnight.

Support levels:1.0987, 1.1049, 1.1080
Resistance levels:1.1173 , 1.1235, 1.1266

EURUSD support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/jbota4ml.jpg

EURUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/MBcXInVl.jpg


Now looking forward. The dollar is looking set to maintain its gains up as the vibrant support from the hopes of Federal Reserve raising interest rates is still fresh. Janet Yellen had said this interest rate hikes would come if the US economy and labour market keeps growing. Thus this week, investors will be critically looking at the very crucial data on the U.S. non-farm payrolls as well. Should data on the U.S. non-farm payrolls be impressively positive, it will greatly increase anticipations of a possible June interest rate hike thus pushing the dollar up further against the euro.


USDJPY


The dollar rose to a four-week high against the yen today Monday. This was as a result of Federal Reserve Janet Yellen had given indications of a possible interest rate in the following months. Thus today, the dollar went up rising past 111.00 handle which is a one-month high as the dollar climbed up to 111.39 yen.

In the last G7 finance ministers meeting which was convened in Tokyo, there was an intense disagreement between Japan and the US pertaining to statements come from Japan of late. These comments had threatened that Japan would intervene should the yen begin its aggressive gains again as it had sometime of late. Taro Aso who is the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso had maintained his stand that those sharp gains we saw in the yen were “one-sided and speculative” and the previous gains of the yen had been "disorderly". US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew had gone against his opinion that the gains which the yen had earlier recorded were not disorderly. Yet today movements in the USDJPY were not inspired by this as the movement in the pair were dominated by Fed statements.

The rise of the US dollar in the market as of now is majorly due to very realistic hopes of rates increase. According to the reputable CME’s Fedwatch program ( a fed watchtool monitoring US economic policies), the chances that we can see interest rates hike in the meeting by June 14 had notably gone up to about 34% while that of a possible interest rate hike in the policy meeting to hold by June 26-27 had gone up to about 60%. This is about two times of what it posted last month.

From Japan, demand for the yen as a safe haven had been greatly affected as reports emerged that Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan is aiming to postpone the planned sales tax by over a year. This would mark the second time we have seen a delay in sales tax increase from Japan. Thus today we saw the USDJPY pair rising up to 113.34. This is a move up of about 0.9%. This increase in the currency pair is the peak it had gotten to since the 28th of April.

As well, data on Japanese Retail Sales had shown a decline. This is the second consecutive month the Japanese retail sales is contracting. The Japanese National Core CPI was not encouraging either as it posted a fall of 0.3%. This disappointing data coupled with a dollar strengthening on the prospects of close interest rates hike had pushed the dollar up against the Japanese yen with the USDJPY pair gaining as far up as 111.44. This move would set the dollar in its most impressive run of gains against the yen for the month of May.

Support levels:108.68, 109.07, 109.65
Resistance levels:110.62, 111.01, 111.59
USDJPY support and resistance: http://i.imgur.com/Zzygvxml.jpg

USDJPY indicators: http://i.imgur.com/9CVvzSgl.jpg


ing forward, for now, the US dollar is on strong form owing to the comments coming from the Federal Reserve on possible interest rate hike. Investors are heavily expecting that this June, the Federal Reserve would increase interest rates. Should data on US non-farm payrolls coming this week be positive,the dollar will only be stronger, gaining more against the yen.


GBPUSD

Today, in early trade, the GBPUSD turned around moving up from a low of 1.4588, the pair gained enough strength to move up to 1.4637. The strengthening British pounds defied the dollars despite statements from the Federal Reserve on potential rise in interest rates.

Opinion polls which are greatly going against a departure of the UK again from the EU. This seeming possibility that the UK will not leave the EU come the next critical referendum had reasonably boosted the British pound. Just last week, the pair had gone up, increasing for the second straight week. The pair had hovered today around the region of 1.4600 after struggling to break above the 1.4700 handle.

The pound thus made a recovery today after initially falling to the strength of the dollar when Janet Yellen immediately said interest rates were "appropriate". Job data as well as Investor sentiment will be coming from the United States will be a big decider as to if the Federal Reserve would make announcements of tighter monetary policy when they meet by the 15th of next month. This is just days before we have the very crucial UK referendum.


As the market went on Today, the odds that we could have an increment in the rates next month had doubled up. This is as federal funds futures which surveys the likeliness of the Federal Reserve raising rates had sprung up their reading for May; with the chances of increase rates rising as far as 30%. Thus eventually the pound fell to the further strengthening dollar as the GBP/USD went down by a decline of about 0.29 percent, dropping to 1.4596.

Support levels:1.4333, 1.4419, 1.4517
Resistance levels:1.4701, 1.4787, 1.4885

GBPUSD support and resistance:http://i.imgur.com/6q20MZll.jpg

GBPUSD indicators: http://i.imgur.com/uI2FaNEl.jpg

ing into the future, the swings in support of the UK staying in the EU which is yet confusingly followed by swings supporting the UK to leave has caused great uncertainty in the UK; even pressuring the British pound. This uncertainty had even caused investment to drop in the UK as well as the UK service sectors showing decline; this uncertainty is making the pound less attractive now while dollar is going stronger as interest rates look to be increased. Thus the dollar could go up against the British pound.

 

Forex Analysis and News for Major Currency pairs June 6 - 10

This Analysis is brought to you by PROFIFOREX

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish

There was no big movement in the EURUSD either up or down as the USD looked likely to go down against the euro. Subsequently, prices for the EURUSD jumped up significantly by 220 pips closing last week at 1.1365. For now the pair looks set for the euro to make gains up though this could be compromised with Federal Reserve officials still maintaining a positive tone for interest rates to be hiked.

Though it is more likely that the pair could sustain its move up. With the UK on the verge of a pull out from the European Union, the general outlook of the euro is bearish. This means it could fall in its major pairs including the EURUSD.


USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish

The pair struggled to move past the resistance level of 0.9950. This occurring many times across the span of last week. Despite the zeal displayed by the pair to cross above 0.9550, it could not thus maintaining a distance from the mark of 1.0000. The pair saw large movement last week, waiting till Friday to consolidate, at which the pair notably fell even up the extent of dropping past the support level at 0.9750. This noteworthy fall formed a bearish confirmation thus establishing the possibility for the pair to drop further down to the support levels at 0.9650 and 0.9700. Now it can be inferred that if the EURUSD drops further, USDCHF is likely to see more traders scrambling to buy the pair.


GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish

The pair made a push last week to rise remarkably. Prices attempted to rise above the 1.4700 mark only for the pair to fall down largely by 300 pips. This fall reduced the pair to the region of 1.4400. This was before it had risen up owing to disappointing data from the US on non farm payrolls. While a good number of currency pairs stand to experience weakened volatility this month, contrary to this, the GBP pairs stand out to see much volatility and movement this month majorly as a result of the upcoming Brexit referendum. This had resulted in an array of bullish and bearish movements. There is the possibility that the pair could be affected by many traders rushing to buy it. But this may not last long as for now those clamouring for the UK to leave the EU are gaining a louder voice. This is the first time this will be happening as regards those pushing for a UK exit to be leading.


USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish

There was also sideway movements in the pair as well, after failing to either move up or down notably last week. Last week Monday and Tuesday, the pair was on a losing end; falling freely with great speed. The fall in the pair last week Friday happened to be the largest such that the accumulated losses of the pair ran in to 420 pips. It is likely this week that the pair could push back, even ascending as far to the levels of 105.50 and 106.00. After this a reversal becomes a solid possibility.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish

The pair struggled to put together a push in the upward direction last week. But such move was halted at the level of124.00. After failing to rise past that 124.00 handle, the EURJPY began a fall; climbing down to 121.50. Just in the same character of the USDJPY currency pair, it appears it could drop further to the level of 120.50 or even worse at 120.00 before it attempts an upward comeback.

 

Here’s the market outlook for this week June 13- 17:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral

For most of last month, the EURUSD currency pair was on the downward trend. But by June 3, there was an indication the pair would turn around and rise owing to a powerful bullish breakout. Despite this, the EURUSD failed to keep its pace up as the pair went down after attempting to rise above 1.1400 which is a resistance level. This has the made the trend quite unclear as gains of June 3 have been cleared by the strong downward movement of the pair across the last four days. But then, it is not certain that the pair would is on a downtrend- not until the pair falls as far below 1.1150. Only when the pair drops below this point can we surely expect a long fall of the currency pair. And then for the trend of the EURUSD to be up again, the pair has to at least cross above 1.1350 which is a vital resistance line.


USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Last week,there was no big movement with neither the dollar nor the yen gaining on each other. The pair was almost flat across last week. Though on Monday, the dollar made a push to move up against the yen, there is the strong possibility that the yen would reverse and make gains against the dollar. Thus it appears the USDJPY might go down this week even going as far down as 105.50 and 106.00 which are notable demand levels.


GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish


Between last week Monday and Tuesday, the GBPUSD had risen up by 260 pips. This was not really in line with expectations as the pair had dropped down noticeably by 460 pips following its test of the distribution territory located at 1.4650. However big movements in the GBPUSD have been shocking so far. In fact, this month, we expect heavy movement in the pair as a very crucial referendum comes up the 23rd of this month where it will be decided whether Britain remains in the European Union or not. The swings in the chances of Britain breaking out have been responsible for the GBPUSD moving up and down so far. But on a longer term, we can say the british pound could drop further against the dollar.



EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish

For this pair, prices had risen up by over 165 pips across last week. But the push up for the EURJPY was halted at 122.50 which is a supply zone. On Friday, the pair had dropped to close at 120.37 which is about a fall of 250 pips. The points 110.00 and 120.00 being demand levels are very important to look out for as there is real chance the pair would fall down further.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish

This pair had dropped across last by week by over 178 pips. The decline has pushed the pair as far below to 0.9600 which is a noteworthy support level. Since the third of June when we had the crucial US jobs data turn out very disappointing, the USDCHF pair had dropped to 0.9577 which is a weekly low. This drop is over a fall of 290 pips. For now, it seems the pair might even fall further dropping past the levels of 0.9550. A detailed move up for the pair could be a solid reality should the pair rise to touch 0.9800 which is a critical resistance level.