News Update for Currency Pairs

USD/CAD jumps again to 2-month high, eyes 1.2700


After a short-lived pause USD/CAD resumed the upside, broke above 1.2670 and jumped to 1.2688, reaching fresh 2-month high.

The pair is holding near the top, while the greenback gained momentum in the market as US bond yields consolidate at higher levels. The 10-year yield rose above 2.40% for the first time since March. Yield differentials between US and Canadian bonds widened adding support to the upside in USD/CAD.

The key event ahead will be tomorrow’s Bank of Canada meeting. Market participants expect no change in rates and a dovish message taking into account the latest round of data, that includes lower-than-expected inflation and a weak retail sales report. Overall Canadian fundamentals remain strong but not as much as two months ago.

Another factor that added support to the upside since late September were NAFTA negotiations. Trump’s comments pointing toward the potential end of the trade agreement affected the loonie, although the most damaged was the Mexican peso.

 

EUR/USD now looks to US data, sticking close to lows around 1.1630

The pair is trading in levels last seen in July around 1.1630 after breaking below the technical 1.1660 area, consistent of August’s lows and the ‘neckline’ from the H&S pattern prevailing since late July.

The dovish tone from President Draghi at the ECB meeting on Thursday coupled with renewed and strong sentiment towards the greenback were far too much for the pair, which already shed around 2 cents since yesterday’s tops near 1.1840 (55-day sma).

Fanning the flames around EUR, the situation in Catalonia keeps worsening after Catalan leader C.Puigdemont refused on Thursday to call for snap elections in the region, paving the way for the Spanish government to trigger direct rule.

Absent important data releases in Euroland today, the focus of attention will shift to advanced US GDP figures for the third quarter and the final gauge of the consumer sentiment for the month of October.

 

EUR/USD flirts around 1.1650 ahead of Eurozone data

The EUR/USD pair is now on course for a long reversal after yesterday’s solid rebound, as the bears continue to guard 1.1655/60 barrier amid resurgent USD buying across the board. The pair now has its eyes on Eurozone CPI, GDP

The spot remains under pressure, as we head towards the European opening bells, as the US dollar consolidates its overnight recovery against its main peers. The greenback and Treasury yields stall its sell-off, as markets look past over the US political drama, with the focus now shifting back on the Eurozone fundamentals.

The EUR traders brace for the key macro data from the Eurozone, which includes the flash CPI and GDP reports due on the cards at 1000 GMT. Markets are widely expecting both the critical data to edge lower in October, which could add to the negative bias seen in the EUR over the last weeks.

The major also awaits the US President Trump’s decision on the next Fed Chair as well as the all-important Fed policy verdict for fresh direction on the buck.

 

AUD/USD begins modest recovery, stays in the red near mid-0.76s

After starting the day under pressure and erasing yesterday's gains during the Asian trading hours amid weaker-than-expected non-manufacturing PMI data from China, the AUD/USD pair continued to push lower to touch a fresh daily low at 0.7640 during the early NA session. However, the pair gained traction in the last hour and was last seen trading at 0.7660, still down 0.4% on the day.

Month-end flows impact the DXY action

A sudden drop witnessed in the US Dollar Index seems to be the primary driver of this slow recovery. After edging higher to a new daily high at 94.60 on the back of upbeat macroeconomic data, the US Dollar Index erased its daily gains to turn negative below 94.50. Although no fundamental catalysts were present behind that fall, the London close may have triggered large end of the month liquidations. At the moment, the index is at 94.36, losing 0.02% on the day.

With a lack of significant data releases in the remainder of the session and tomorrow, the pair is likely to remain in its recent range before the FOMC publishes its monetary policy statement during the NA session on Wednesday. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, in her FOMC preview report points out, "as for the Federal Reserve and as said above, the Central Bank is not expected to take any actions this time, but investors will be eagerly watching for clues to confirm or deny a December hike, and whatever 2018 will bring on monetary policy. Next Fed's chair announcement will probably be more relevant than this particular "non-live" meeting."

 

USD/JPY retreats a little after hitting 8-month high

The dollar pared some of its early strong gains against the Japanese Yen, with the pair retreating few pips from nearly 8-month highs touched during the Asian session.

Expectations for continued monetary policy divergence between the Fed, anticipated to remain on a path of gradual policy tightening, and BoJ, showing no urgency to exit its ultra-easy monetary policy, helped the pair to break through a significant technical resistance near the 114.45-50 region at the start of a new trading week.

The USDJPY is currently trading at 114.40 region, so it would be very wise to be cautions and wait for a strong follow up buy interest before entering a long position. There is little economic release that can move the pair this week. However, comments by the NY Fed President William Dudley is the next thing that could give the pair some fresh impetus.

 

EURUSD retreats and settles below 1.1600

The Euro lets the greenback steal some of its gains and the pair is now heading to the lower end of the range in 1.1580/90 band. ing to consolidate after the ECB meeting in October, the pair extends the sideline theme for the second time in two weeks.

The USD will see some light as the Federal Reserve meeting in December 13 draws near. Presently, the pair is heading up 0.3% at 1.1591 facing the next support level at 1.1555. A break out of the 1.1624 would pave way for 1.1692 November 3 high.

 

GBPUSD vulnerable to further losses; remains below 1.3225 key hurdle

Latest political developments in the UK have mounted selling pressure on the Pound. This was as a result of Priti Patel’s resignation as International Development Secretary on Wednesday evening. There was leaked information regarding her involvement in a series of unauthorized meetings with Israeli officials.

The GBPUSD has now recovered back to the 1.3100 and trading above it. A softer tone US dollar has now turned defensive on the back of mounting uncertainty over the US tax reforms. The NIESR will release an update on the UK’s GDP outlook and the U.S jobless claims, which will provide a short term impetus for the pair.

 

EURUSD is moving higher ahead of the German ZEW survey

The EUR is now trading around the H&S neckline near 1.1670 ahead of ZEW. The pair is certainly extending its upward movement for the fifth session in a row on Tuesday. It is still looking for a strong economic indicator to push it above the critical 1.1660/70 band, which was breach in late October.

Traders are now looking forward to the CPI figures for the month of October and the German ZEW survey. Another interesting event is the policy panel at the conference for policy effectiveness, accountability and reputation, organized by the ECB in German.

Presently the pair is moving upward by 0.01% at 1.1668, and movement beyond 1.1685 would open door to 1.1692 and 1.1732.

 

The GBPUSD hits a 2-day high at 1.3187

The GBPUSD reversed course and hits a 3 day high at 1.3187 as the end of the trading session draws near. The pair traded at 1.3180, adding 0.5% on the day. The USD was weaker than expected today after the release of the PPI growth in October. The figure was higher than expected, but this did not help the USD recover. The dollar index is losing 0.67% on the day.

The pair is looking to close the day above the 100-DMA critical level, which will pave way for further gains toward 1.3250 and 1.3400.

 

UK retail sales and how they could affect the GBPUSD

In September, UK retail sales were -0.8% over the month and 1.2% annually. Retail sales for October are expected to be published later today at 0930 GMT and it is expected to rebound to 0.1% m/m.

How it could affect the GBPUSD is entirely up to the released data. However, the reaction is likely to remain glued between 10 and 70 pips in deviation. A more significant data could push the pair to a 100 pips. A disappointing report could see the GBPUSD breach the 1.3150 support line.

 

EURGBP continues to fall; holds above support line 0.8877

EURGBP remains under pressure from the geopolitical worries in Germany. The Pair hit session low; November 1 low and November 10 low. German Chancellor, a Merkel’s plans to form “Jamaica” coalition failed, causing the European Union to either form minority government or go for another election. The pair fell to a low of 0.8874, but recovered to hold above the trend support line. GBP bulls decide to stay on the sideline due to the Brexit uncertainties.

Should the EURGBP break below the trend support of 0.8877, 0.8865 (4-hour 100-MA) would be exposed.

 

USDJPY makes a swift recovery toward the mid 111.00s

USDJPY caught some strong bids and begins a swift recovery today. The FOMC minutes-led US dollar selling pressure is gradually dying away and this gave the USD some space to breath in fresh air. The Yen seems to get its own pressure from a mildly positive trading sentiment around Asian equity markets. This recent development in Asia assisted in the strong recovery of the pair which is now clinging to the mid-111.00s.

There is no reaction from the market to the release of Japanese Manufacturing PMI for November. The US economy docket including PMI releases for today will be the only news release left for this week. It is unlikely to move the market in any way. If the Pair moves beyond the price 111.70, it could breach the 112.00 handle.

 

USDJPY recovers from its lowest level in 10 months; Rises above the 111 mark

USDJPY has found a way to gain back some of its losses last week. The pair fell to its lowest level in more than ten weeks, hitting bottom at 110.83. On Monday this week, the pair took back some of its losses and rose above the 111 mark. It is now trading around the 111.0/111.10 region even though it is yet to recover fully.

The New home sale data which was at its strongest in 10 years helped the dollar to regain strength against its peers. The dollar index now trades 92.18, 0.1% on this day. U.S equity indexes such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes were up by 0.15% and 0.05% respectively.

The Japanese Yen seem to be calm at the moment with no scheduled data release on Tuesday. We could expect the USD to take advantage of this and climb past the 111 mark by a large margin.

 

GBP/USD takes a hit BBC no Brexit deal headlines

GBPUSD has been hit hard on a BBC report that states not to expect a deal today from Brexit talks. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3474, up 0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3541 and low at 1.3413.

We also got the joint statement from May and Juncker having met today in Brussels who were lunching together, and more volatility was expected. Reuters confirmed as well as the statement was coming through.

Juncker was saying that PM is a tough negotiator but he has to say they are narrowing their positions although he is still confident before 15th Dec.

PM May said, both sides are working hard in good faith and progress has been made and a common understanding on many issues. On a couple of issues, some differences remain and they will reconvene before the end of the week. She is also confident that they will conclude this positively.

 

EURUSD continues recovery ahead of US ADP report

The EURUSD recently entered nine-day lows, but made some attempts to recover. It is now heading for a test of 1.1850 levels. The USD is presently suffering from the news of an imminent Government shutdown in the wake of the Government funding to expire this Friday.

There is also the news of an interest rate hike by Chikago Fed President Evans in December. The USD index continues its losing run to a fresh daily lows of 93.16, a -0.12% loss on the day. This means the EURUSD will continue to move up, but will later be influenced by the releases of the German Factory orders, Eurozone retail PMI and the US ADP employment data.

 

EURUSD continues to fall under pressure after PPI data

The pair breached last week’s lows and continued to move downside during the US session. It settled below 1.1716, dropping to its lowest level since November 21. The USD gained some strength from PPI data that was released and supported by rising US bond yields. The PPI data showed a 3.1% increase in annual rate, its highest since February 2012. Other U.S stocks like the Dow Jones showed increase in prices. The The DXY rose above 94.00 as it was last seen at 94.17.

With a rate hike expected, updated projections and the tone of the statement will play a key role and represent a risk to the USD bullish outlook. Another relevant of the week is the ECB meeting on Thursday.

 

The US dollar slumps and the Euro peaked at 1.1833

The US dollar had a major setback and made the pair to spike to the 1.1830 area earlier today. It later dropped to 1.1800. The Euro peaked at 1.1833, its highest level since Thursday before dropping back to 1.1797. The Euro is still weak against other currencies like the Pound.

Investors are now looking forward to the tax reform bill which is likely to be the main driver over the next few days. Other political events will take place across Europe and US. With data in the US and the EZ showing a healthy economy and no surprises, politics is likely to be a key player during the last weeks of 2017.

 

GBPUSD retreats to settle at the 1.3400 handle

The pair remains at the mercy of the Price action connected to the Treasury Yields, while the market look up to the Fresh Brexit headlines to move beyond the 1.34 handle. GBPUSD hits a fresh 2 day tops recently, then retreats to 1.3375 levels last hours.

The British Pound continued to find support from fresh positive talks on Brexit movement after Theresa May and President Trump agreed on the importance of a quick Brexit transition. Also, there is the UK CBI relized sales data and the BOE ney’s speech for the next direction on the pound. What next for the Pair?

Technical Analysis from Fxstreet in quote:

“Technically the GBP/USD is still moving within the downward sloping trend framed by its key support level at $1.3320 on the downside and by 50-period simple moving average at around $1.3400 and then trendline resistance of about $1.3420 on the upside. The support level of $1.3320 on GBP/USD is formed by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line of the uptrend starting on August 24 at $1.2770 and peaking on September 20 at $1.3660.”

 

EURUSD recovers and consolidates at mid- 1.1800s

There has been a recent recovery by the EURUSD as it takes back part of its losses and enters a consolidation phase around mid- 1.1800s. Before now, the pair reacted negatively over a rising political disturbance in Spain after Catalan separatists won the vote that was conducted Yesterday. Interestingly, the EURUSD is now recovering from that setback and investors are ready for the Spanish PM Rajoy’s speech, today at 13:00nGMT.

The upward tick of the pair could be thwarted as the US dollar looks set to pick up from the news of fund approval by the senate through January 19. This could avert a Government shut down as the American people once feared.

 

EURUSD has 1.1900 back on sight amid fresh USD selling

The EURUSD continues its upside bias but has yet to breach the upper bound of 1.18 handle, as investors await fresh news to determine the next course of action. Meanwhile the Pair’s upward movement is as a result of fresh US dollar selling across the board, as the market remains cautious of the Fed rate hike next year.

The EUR also gathered some strength from the substantial upward revision to Eurozone growth estimates made by the ECB at its meeting earlier this month. Later today the US CB consumer confidence and pending home sales data will be released, which will give the pair a new direction.